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USMNT Best Impact Players

USMNT Best Impact Players

I started to think of how soccer is currently in it's infancy in advanced statistical analysis. When you compare even the most current advanced stats they have one big shortcoming: soccer is a free flowing team sport. This was particularly galvanized for me when listening to an interview with American Soccer Analysis's Eliot McKinley. The advantage that other team sports have versus soccer is that they boil down to one on one situational battles than soccer tends to be. When you try to quantify those battles with soccer you tend to lose some of the nuance that the sport can produce. While this is bound to improve with more combinations of "event data" (e.g. xG, xA) and the rapidly improving "tracking data" (e.g. off the ball movement), we are still a long time away from soccer having it's own form of baseballs vaunted WAR stat.

How Do We Quantify The Best Team Players

So how to we find a way to quantify what cannot be quantified: who makes their team better when they are on the field, and who simply benefits from being given opportunities for a good team. Sometimes what a player does that makes a team better doesn't necessarily show up in current statistical models. So I decided to try to a way to quantify it based upon currently available numbers.

I did this by ranking USMNT Player Pool players with two different numbers (MLS players are 2019 season data):

1. Differential between an individuals player FotMob rating and their clubs FotMob Team rating

2. Differential between a clubs Points Per Game (PPG) for when a player plays meaningful minutes (I used a minimum of 30 minutes as the cutoff) and when the don't play.

These two differentials can show if a player is one of the better players on their team statistically (1) and can show if a team is more successful in terms of wins/draws when a certain player plays than when they don't (2).

How To Analyze The Numbers

While both of these have their limitations, they can provide some useful information especially when combined. If a player ranks high on both differentials it shows that they make their team better, if not then they make it worse. This can also tell us that a player deserves a step up to better club, or maybe they aren't ready to make that leap yet. It doesn't necessarily tell us that a player is a bad player, but maybe they are just currently a little weaker than others on their team. Another thing to consider is that it can also show us whether a team is committed to giving a younger player an opportunity to develop, even if it doesn't give them better results currently.

Goalkeepers:

FotMob Rating Differential

Rank Player Club Differential FM Rating
1 Matt Turner NE Revolution 0
2 Bill Hamid DC United -0.16
3 Zack Steffen Fortuna Duesseldorf -0.35
4 David Bingham LA Galaxy -0.36
5 Stefan Frei Seattle Sounders FC -0.43
6 Brad Guzan Atlanta United -0.43
7 Sean Johnson New York City FC -0.45
8 Jesse Gonzalez FC Dallas -0.46
9 Tyler Miller Minnesota United -0.48

PPG Differential

Rank Player Club Differential PPG
1 Matt Turner NE Revolution 0.28
2 Tyler Miller Minnesota United 0.10
3 Jesse Gonzalez FC Dallas 0.06
4 David Bingham LA Galaxy 0.05
5 Zack Steffen Fortuna Duesseldorf 0.00
6 Brad Guzan Atlanta United 0.00
7 Stefan Frei Seattle Sounders FC 0.00
8 Bill Hamid DC United -0.05
9 Sean Johnson New York City FC -0.09

GK Analysis:

Matt Turner is the clear winning here. Being on top of both charts show that he clearly made his team better when he was inserted into the lineup than when he was out of it. He recently received a couple of callups, but did not make the field. With a strong 2020 he could take the mantle of being the best US MLS goalie. Outside of that their wasn't really any other Goalie that stood out one way or the other. This isn't to be too unexpected as starting goalies get the vast majority of their teams minutes. The one exception to that would be Zack Steffen who while out injured it shows that his replacement was no different than him.

Centerbacks:

FotMob Rating Differential

Rank Player Club Differential FM Rating
1 Donovan Pines DC United 0.26
2 Cameron Carter-Vickers Luton Town 0.24
3 Omar Gonzalez Toronto FC 0.19
4 Aaron Long New York Red Bulls 0.08
5 Erik Palmer-Brown Austria Wien 0.05
6 Aboubacar Keita Columbus Crew SC 0.05
7 John Brooks Wolfsburg 0.04
8 Matt Miazga Reading 0.03
9 Steven Birnbaum DC United 0.02
10 Miles Robinson Atlanta United 0
11 Auston Trusty Colorado Rapids -0.04
12 Tim Ream Fulham -0.08
13 Justen Glad Real Salt Lake -0.09
14 Brendan Hines-Ike Kortrijk -0.1
15 Walker Zimmerman Nashville SC -0.19
16 Tim Parker New York Red Bulls -0.28
17 Giles Phillips Wycombe -0.38
18 Mark McKenzie Philadelphia Union -0.38
19 Ventura Alvarado Necaxa -0.6

PPG Differential

Rank Player Club Differential PPG
1 Aboubacar Keita Columbus Crew SC 0.48
2 Omar Gonzalez Toronto FC 0.46
3 Justen Glad Real Salt Lake 0.40
4 Cameron Carter-Vickers Luton Town 0.39
5 Matt Miazga Reading 0.20
6 Erik Palmer-Brown Austria Wien 0.15
7 Donovan Pines DC United 0.08
8 Walker Zimmerman Nashville SC 0.04
9 Tim Ream Fulham 0.01
10 Steven Birnbaum DC United 0.00
11 Auston Trusty Colorado Rapids -0.03
12 Tim Parker New York Red Bulls -0.03
13 Miles Robinson Atlanta United -0.04
14 Aaron Long New York Red Bulls -0.12
15 Brendan Hines-Ike Kortrijk -0.14
16 John Brooks Wolfsburg -0.19
17 Ventura Alvarado Necaxa -0.30
18 Giles Phillips Wycombe -0.36
19 Mark McKenzie Philadelphia Union -0.45

CB Analysis:

A player that shows he is making a strong impact on his club is Cameron-Carter Vickers. He has clearly upgraded Luton Town's performances since he arrived and could give them hope of staying up. This also shows that at a minimum, CCV is good enough to be a starter in the Championship. While this may not be popular, Omar Gonzalez appears to make Toronto a better team when he is on the field. Keita also shows that although he might not be as heralded as some of the other young CB's, he should be on a trajectory to be at least a solid MLS CB.

On the opposite end of the spectrum these numbers do not look good for Ventura Alvarado and Mark McKenzie. Alvarado had a mostly strong 2019, but his 2020 has been pretty awful. Besides putting up terrible individual statistics, he also drags down the performances of his team as well. While McKenzie is a solid prospect, this analysis shows he still has a ways to go until he is a true anchor of his defense. While it is good to see Philly giving him opportunities to learn and grow, this shows that he is not ready yet to take the next step and needs to show better in 2020.

Left Backs

FotMob Rating Differential

Rank Player Club Differential FM Rating
1 Ryan Hollingshead FC Dallas 0.38
2 Chase Gasper Minnesota United 0.31
3 Antonee Robinson Wigan 0.27
4 Eric Lichaj Hull 0.23
5 Greg Garza FC Cincinnati 0.2
6 Daniel Lovitz Nashville SC 0.07
7 Jorge Villafana Portland Timbers 0.07
8 Nick Lima San Jose Earthquakes -0.18
9 Andrew Gutman FC Cincinnati -0.2
10 Ben Sweat Inter Miami -0.22
11 Sam Vines Colorado Rapids -0.22

PPG Differential

Rank Player Club Differential PPG
1 Greg Garza FC Cincinnati 0.59
2 Eric Lichaj Hull 0.27
3 Sam Vines Colorado Rapids 0.14
4 Ryan Hollingshead FC Dallas 0.04
5 Jorge Villafana Portland Timbers -0.03
6 Daniel Lovitz Nashville SC -0.06
7 Chase Gasper Minnesota United -0.09
8 Antonee Robinson Wigan -0.21
9 Nick Lima San Jose Earthquakes -0.25
10 Ben Sweat Inter Miami -0.26
11 Andrew Gutman FC Cincinnati -0.54

LB Analysis:

Left Back being a very thin depth chart makes analysis tough, though FC Cincinnati's LB's are an interesting case. Garza spend much of 2019 out injured and a hyped up prospect Andrew Gutman came in on loan to help assist. The numbers are fairly staggering in their opposite nature. The team struggled mightily with Gutman in the lineup while was significantly better with Garza. Their FotMob statistics were significantly different as well. With Gutman being a loan player, it will be hard for Cincinnati to justify him playing over Garza when they are both healthy. Eric Lichaj was a player that also improved his teams performances while Nick Lima and Ben Sweat did not.

Right Backs:

FotMob Rating Differential

Rank Player Club Differential FM Rating
1 Kyle Duncan New York Red Bulls 0.38
2 Brandon Bye NE Revolution 0.12
3 Keegan Rosenberry Colorado Rapids 0.07
4 Tommy Thompson San Jose Earthquakes 0.04
5 Aaron Herrera Real Salt Lake -0.01
6 Tristan Blackmon Los Angeles FC -0.02
7 Julian Araujo LA Galaxy -0.07
8 Matthew Olosunde Rotterham -0.09
9 Shaq Moore Tenerife -0.22
10 DeAndre Yedlin Newcastle United -0.22
11 Reggie Cannon FC Dallas -0.23
12 Sergino Dest Ajax -0.34

PPG Differential

Rank Player Club Differential PPG
1 Julian Araujo LA Galaxy 0.40
2 Kyle Duncan New York Red Bulls 0.25
3 Tommy Thompson San Jose Earthquakes 0.15
4 Brandon Bye NE Revolution 0.03
5 Aaron Herrera Real Salt Lake 0.02
6 DeAndre Yedlin Newcastle United 0.02
7 Matthew Olosunde Rotterham 0.01
8 Keegan Rosenberry Colorado Rapids 0.00
9 Reggie Cannon FC Dallas -0.07
10 Tristan Blackmon Los Angeles FC -0.17
11 Shaq Moore Tenerife -0.17
12 Sergino Dest Ajax -0.18

RB Analysis:

So, lets say this right off the back. This absolutely does not say that Sergino Dest is a bad player in any respects. These numbers are relative to a players club. Dest is absolutely the best player in our player pool at RB and on top of that is being looked at as a top prospect in that position globally. That being said, he is still just that: a prospect. The numbers here don't lie, Ajax was a worse team when Dest on the field. It is his case that shows what these numbers can tell. When I see this I see two things: Dest is not quite yet at Ajax's level, and that Ajax are still willing to give him opportunities to improve. Where this particularly worries me though, is if Sergino gets his rumored transfer to Bayern Munich for next season. If he is not yet to be a positive performer at Ajax he is definitely not yet ready for Bayern. A transfer too soon to a club that may not give him as long of a leash to develop could be disastrous. Another season, one way or another, at a club at Ajax's level is probably in his best long term interests. A couple other players that jump out in a positive manner are Brandon Bye, Julian Araujo and Kyle Duncan. Bye, deserves a look at next MLS specific camp and Araujo is shown that he should be in Galaxy's lineup more often, or needs a move to another club at a similar level. Duncan hopefully will hold onto the starter position this year at NYRB and could also show that he deserves a look at the National Team level.

Defensive Midfielders:

FotMob Rating Differential

Rank Player Club Differential FM Rating
1 Michael Bradley Toronto FC 0.27
2 Wil Trapp Inter Miami 0.26
3 Sean Davis New York Red Bulls 0.24
4 Jackson Yueill San Jose Earthquakes 0.15
5 Hassani Dotson Minnesota United 0.06
6 Brandon Servania FC Dallas 0.05
7 Russell Canouse DC United -0.03
8 Brandt Bronico Chicago Fire -0.09
9 Chris Durkin St. Truidense -0.14
10 Edwin Cerrillo FC Dallas -0.14
11 Fernando Arce Jr. Necaxa -0.15
12 James Sands New York City FC -0.25
13 Tyler Adams RB Leipzig -0.5

PPG Differential

Rank Player Club Differential PPG
1 Brandon Servania FC Dallas 0.20
2 Russell Canouse DC United 0.20
3 Jackson Yueill San Jose Earthquakes 0.17
4 Michael Bradley Toronto FC 0.16
5 Sean Davis New York Red Bulls 0.14
6 Edwin Cerrillo FC Dallas 0.13
7 Wil Trapp Inter Miami 0.10
8 Brandt Bronico Chicago Fire 0.04
9 Fernando Arce Jr. Necaxa -0.10
10 James Sands New York City FC -0.35
11 Hassani Dotson Minnesota United -0.36
12 Tyler Adams RB Leipzig -0.40
13 Chris Durkin St. Truidense -0.44

DM Analysis:

To get it right off the bat, Tyler Adams' numbers are completely understandable. He is playing for a Top 10 club globally, but has not been healthy. He has yet to come back fully into form, so of course he is not going to put positive numbers for a team of that caliber until he does. This does show that players once healthy do need some patience to work themselves back into full match form. On a positve note, Sean Davis, Michael Bradley, and Jackson Yueill all show that they consistently make their teams better when they are on the field. Chris Durkin's impact numbers are not the best, but were getting better as the season went along, again showing that he is a developing prospect, but is probably currently at the level he should be.

Center Midfielders:

FotMob Rating Differential

Rank Player Club Differential FM Rating
1 Cristian Roldan Seattle Sounders FC 0.44
2 Marky Delgado Toronto FC 0.37
3 Alejandro Bedoya Philadelphia Union 0.3
4 Sebastian Lletget LA Galaxy 0.25
5 Nick DeLeon Toronto FC 0.03
6 Alfredo Morales Fortuna Duesseldorf 0.01
7 Joe Corona LA Galaxy -0.03
8 Christian Cappis Hobro -0.04
9 Jann George Jahn Ragensburg -0.04
10 Cole Bassett Colorado Rapids -0.05
11 Keaton Parks New York City FC -0.05
12 Weston McKennie Schalke 04 -0.08
13 Kellyn Acosta Colorado Rapids -0.2

PPG Differential

Rank Player Club Differential PPG
1 Keaton Parks New York City FC 0.40
2 Alfredo Morales Fortuna Duesseldorf 0.12
3 Cristian Roldan Seattle Sounders FC 0.10
4 Christian Cappis Hobro 0.10
5 Sebastian Lletget LA Galaxy 0.06
6 Cole Bassett Colorado Rapids 0.05
7 Marky Delgado Toronto FC 0.03
8 Nick DeLeon Toronto FC 0.01
9 Alejandro Bedoya Philadelphia Union 0.01
10 Jann George Jahn Ragensburg 0.00
11 Kellyn Acosta Colorado Rapids -0.01
12 Joe Corona LA Galaxy -0.02
13 Weston McKennie Schalke 04 -0.11

CM Analysis:

The numbers for center midfielder's are a little all over the place, but a couple of players that are on the more positive side are Cristian Roldan are Sebastian Lleget. No players jump out as being significantly negative. In Roldan's case it shows that a player fitting with a team can be very important. Roldan has not been good for the USMNT, but this shows that he has been vital for Seattle. Keaton Parks is an interesting case in that his individual statistical numbers are not significantly positive, but when he is on the field the team's record is significantly better.

Attacking Midfielders:

FotMob Rating Differential

Rank Player Club Differential FM Rating
1 Jordan Morris Seattle Sounders FC 0.57
2 Julian Green Greuther Fuerth 0.43
3 Paxton Pomykal FC Dallas 0.34
4 Tmothy Chandler Eintracht Frankfurt 0.24
5 Emmanuel Sabbi Hobro 0.16
6 Duane Holmes Derby 0.13
7 Jonathan Lewis Colorado Rapids 0.12
8 Timothy Tillman Greuther Fuerth 0.12
9 Djordje Mihailovic Chicago Fire 0.08
10 Paul Arriola DC United -0.01
11 Alex Muyl New York Red Bulls -0.06
12 Lynden Gooch Sunderland -0.11
13 Sebastian Saucedo Pumas -0.12
14 Christian Pulisic Chelsea -0.14
15 Corey Baird Real Salt Lake -0.17
16 Luis Argudo Inter Miami -0.19
17 Joe Gyau FC Cincinnati -0.25
18 Brenden Aaronson Philadelphia Union -0.26
19 Gedion Zelalem New York City FC -0.29
20 Omir Fernandez New York Red Bulls -0.3
21 Emerson Hyndman Atlanta United -0.31
22 Brooks Lennon Atlanta United -0.36
23 Tyler Boyd Besiktas -0.55

PPG Differential

Rank Player Club Differential PPG
1 Jordan Morris Seattle Sounders FC 0.35
2 Joe Gyau FC Cincinnati 0.29
3 Lynden Gooch Sunderland 0.29
4 Gedion Zelalem New York City FC 0.28
5 Timothy Tillman Greuther Fuerth 0.23
6 Jonathan Lewis Colorado Rapids 0.22
7 Omir Fernandez New York Red Bulls 0.19
8 Brenden Aaronson Philadelphia Union 0.07
9 Paul Arriola DC United 0.07
10 Sebastian Saucedo Pumas 0.06
11 Alex Muyl New York Red Bulls 0.03
12 Tmothy Chandler Eintracht Frankfurt 0.02
13 Matko Miljevic Argentinos Juniors -0.03
14 Luis Argudo Inter Miami -0.03
15 Julian Green Greuther Fuerth -0.04
16 Paxton Pomykal FC Dallas -0.05
17 Corey Baird Real Salt Lake -0.10
18 Emerson Hyndman Atlanta United -0.11
19 Duane Holmes Derby -0.12
20 Emmanuel Sabbi Hobro -0.19
21 Christian Pulisic Chelsea -0.27
22 Joel Sonora Arsenal Sarandi -0.31
23 Djordje Mihailovic Chicago Fire -0.35
24 Brooks Lennon Atlanta United -0.43
25 Tyler Boyd Besiktas -0.47

AM Analysis:

Jordan Morris is the clear winner here. There is no doubt that Seattle was significantly better with him on the field. Timothy Tillman shows up as a positive player on both charts, boding well for the young player showing well back from injury and with a new club. A surprising name showing up on the negative side was Emerson Hyndman. Looking deeper into his numbers during his first season at Atlanta shows that he was fairly inconsistent. Hopefully he can be more consistent next season. Pulisic was a victim of similar circumstance: inconsistency. Brooks Lennon and Tyler Boyd were both on the very negative side. Lennon has since moved onto a different club (and different field position). Unfortunately Boyd's move to Besiktas has not worked out well for both himself and the team.

Forwards:

FotMob Rating Differential

Rank Player Club Differential FM Rating
1 Jozy Altidore Toronto FC 0.53
2 Gyasi Zardes Columbus Crew SC 0.3
3 Christian Ramirez Houston Dynamo 0.3
4 C.J. Sapong Chicago Fire 0.18
5 Gianluca Busio Sporting KC 0.18
6 Jesus Ferreira FC Dallas 0.14
7 Josh Sargent Werder Bremen 0.08
8 Fafa Picault FC Dallas 0.01
9 Nicholas Gioacchini Caen -0.01
10 Jeremy Ebobisse Portland Timbers -0.02
11 Haji Wright VVV Venlo -0.14
12 Mason Toye Minnesota United -0.22
13 Charlie Kelman Southend -0.24
14 Andrew Wooten Philadelphia Union -0.37
15 Jordan Siebatcheu Rennes -0.63
16 Aron Johannsson Hammarby -0.81

PPG Differential

Rank Player Club Differential PPG
1 Charlie Kelman Southend 0.55
2 Josh Sargent Werder Bremen 0.47
3 Aron Johannsson Hammarby 0.33
4 Gyasi Zardes Columbus Crew SC 0.24
5 Nicholas Gioacchini Caen 0.22
6 Andrija Novakovich Frosinone 0.11
7 Mason Toye Minnesota United 0.11
8 Jozy Altidore Toronto FC 0.08
9 Jeremy Ebobisse Portland Timbers 0.06
10 Jesus Ferreira FC Dallas 0.05
11 C.J. Sapong Chicago Fire -0.06
12 Christian Ramirez Houston Dynamo -0.07
13 Haji Wright VVV Venlo -0.08
14 Andrew Wooten Philadelphia Union -0.12
15 Jordan Siebatcheu Rennes -0.12
16 Fafa Picault FC Dallas -0.27
17 Gianluca Busio Sporting KC -0.42

FW Analysis:

Gyasi Zardes and Josh Sargent are both players on the positive end of the spectrum. Frosinone was a better team PPG wise with Andrija Novakovich on the field (FM Team was not available for Serie B clubs). Nicholas Gioacchini also looks like a young player who could be ready to take a step up next season. Jozy put up great individual numbers, but it didn't necessarily translate into and end result (which in a forwards case could show a defensive liability). While he hasn't been spectacular, Sargents numbers show that he is not the reason Werder Bremen are struggling significantly. On the negative side, Haji Wright, Andrew Wooten, and Jordan Siebatcheu all were negative performers for their clubs.

This is a FanPost written by a member of our blog's community. The views expressed in this post do not necessarily reflect the feelings or beliefs of the blog itself or the staff.