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USMNT Player Pool Coefficient (End of MLS Season Edition)

USMNT Player Coefficient

The second round of FIFA (pay no mind to the slave labor) World Cup Qualifying is here! Soccer is still jammed packed from now until the summer of 2023. Following all the USMNT is hard and there are big games like every month or something, so I am here to help.

For those new to this series I decided to develop this because there are always a significant amount of blog posts/conversations focusing on the debate about who should be called in. So why not find a new way to bring about the conversation of who the top 23 (or how ever many are called up) players are in a win-now situation using a little math.

As always, this is just a jumping off point in the conversation, not an endorsement saying this is exactly who should be called up.

Reasoning

With players spread across the world, in many different quality of leagues, choosing which players are the best becomes a very difficult proposition. How do you rate a sure-fire starter in the MLS vs. a squad player the in the Bundesliga? Because of this I devised a coefficient that combines multiple statistical resources and rankings to create a mathematical rating of all eligible and under consideration USMNT players.

What is Considered (Methodology)

To create the coefficient I assigned point values of various weights and tiers based upon the following criteria:

  1. League Ranking (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
  2. Club Ranking SPI (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
  3. Percentage of League Minutes Played (Max 10 Points)
  4. Individual Player Ratings in League Games (Max 50 Points) (whoscored.com, fotmob.com)
  5. Percentage of USMNT Call-ups in past year of Rosters (Current Max of 1.25 Points)
  6. Continental Competition Appearances (Current Max of 4.5)
  7. Recent Minutes Bonus (Max 2 Points)
  8. Form Bonus (Max 1 Point)

These items were chosen based upon philosophy that experience on the highest levels show a better player then one at lower levels, but very little minutes or poor play at a top squad may not show the most in form player than one playing at a high level, but at a lower club. Players receive a bonus if their recent minutes/ratings have seen an uptick in form. Those bonuses equate to raising a player up a tier. In addition, a small weight was given on familiarity with recent call-ups as a factor.

What Isn't Measured

What has to be remembered is the point of this exercise is to identify the best 23 players currently. Things that cannot be measured are club situations, Cap-ties, current injuries, player development, formation fits, poor National Team appearances, etc.

Who Is Considered

I automatically included every player that received a call-up from the past year of rosters (currently November 2020-September 2021). Additionally I tried to include all players that are under consideration for a call-up or that consensus says should be considered for a call-up (players that play in leagues that do not have advanced stats are not included). Players are then sorted into generalized positions (based upon appearances at club level according to WhoScored positional data). There is always some movement of the top 23 based upon formation considerations in how many per position are called. Players not currently eligible for USMNT call-up are not listed. Any suggestions to players to add or remove from the pool are highly recommended.

Notes

There will be an upcoming rosters that will feature outside of normal FIFA windows and will have lots of domestic and youth depth pieces.

Goalkeepers

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 ↑9 Zack Steffen 26 Manchester City 60.3
2 Matt Turner 27 NE Revolution 59.525
3 ↓2 Sean Johnson 32 New York City FC 59.3
4 ↓1 Brad Guzan 37 Atlanta United 55.65
5 ↓1 Tim Melia 35 Sporting KC 54.65
6 ↓1 JT Marcinkowski 24 San Jose Earthquakes 54.25
7 Stefan Frei 35 Seattle Sounders FC 53.25
8 ↓2 Bill Hamid 30 DC United 52.2
9 ↓1 Ethan Horvath 26 Nottingham Forrest 45.05
10 ↓1 Matt Freese 23 Philadelphia Union 45.05
11 Chituru Odunze 19 Leicester City 20.5
12 Carlos Dos Santos 21 Benfica 18.25
13 Brady Scott 22 Austin FC 9.25

Centerbacks

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 ↑1 John Brooks 28 Wolfsburg 66.075
2 ↑3 Cameron Carter-Vickers 23 Celtic 64.025
3 Tim Ream 34 Fulham 62.8
4 ↑6 Miles Robinson 24 Atlanta United 60.075
5 ↓1 Matt Miazga 26 Alaves 60.025
6 ↓5 Chris Richards 21 Hoffenheim 59.825
7 ↑1 Walker Zimmerman 28 Nashville SC 59.8
8 ↓1 Mark McKenzie 22 Genk 57.3
9 Auston Trusty 23 Colorado Rapids 57.175
10 ↓4 Henry Kessler 23 NE Revolution 56.25
11 ↑3 Justen Glad 24 Real Salt Lake 54.65
12 ↑1 Donovan Pines 23 DC United 54.175
13 ↑2 Mauricio Pineda 24 Chicago Fire FC 53.4
14 ↑3 Aaron Long 29 New York Red Bulls 51.7
15 ↓4 Omar Gonzalez 33 Toronto FC 51.375
16 Tim Parker 28 Houston Dynamo 51.15
17 ↑3 Erik Palmer-Brown 24 Troyes 50.700
18 ↓6 Justin Che 17 FC Dallas 49.9
19 Aboubacar Keita 21 Columbus Crew 48.6
20 ↓2 Brendan Hines-Ike 26 DC United 48.525

Left Backs

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Antonee Robinson 24 Fulham 63.875
2 DeJuan Jones 24 NE Revolution 59.225
3 ↑1 George Bello 19 Atlanta United 57.675
4 Chase Gasper 25 Minnesota United 56.95
5 ↑5 Sam Vines 22 Royal Antwerp 55.625
6 ↓3 Daniel Lovitz 30 Nashville SC 55.425
7 ↓1 Andrew Gutman 25 New York Red Bulls 55.3
8 ↓3 Ryan Hollingshead 30 FC Dallas 55.125
9 ↓1 Kevin Paredes 18 DC United 51.825
10 ↓1 Marco Farfan 22 Los Angeles FC 51.5
11 Jaylin Lindsey 21 Sporting KC 50.15
12 Chris Gloster 21 New York City FC 48.275

Right Backs

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Sergino Dest 21 Barcelona 68.2
2 Joe Scally 18 Borussia M.Gladbach 65.2
3 Kyle Duncan 24 New York Red Bulls 59.825
4 Brandon Bye 26 NE Revolution 58.7
5 ↑2 DeAndre Yedlin 28 Galatasaray 58.3
6 ↓1 Keegan Rosenberry 27 Colorado Rapids 56.5
7 ↓1 Aaron Herrera 24 Real Salt Lake 55.875
8 ↑1 Bryan Reynolds 20 Roma 52.35
9 ↓1 Nick Lima 26 Austin FC 51.025
10 Tristan Blackmon 25 Los Angeles FC 50.725
11 ↑2 Reggie Cannon 23 Boavista 49.475
12 Shaq Moore 25 Tenerife 49.425
13 ↓2 Tommy Thompson 26 San Jose Earthquakes 47.625
14 Matthew Olosunde 23 Preston North End 14

Defensive Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Tyler Adams 22 RB Leipzig 62.55
2 James Sands 21 New York City FC 59.225
3 Sean Davis 28 New York Red Bulls 59.2
4 ↑1 Leon Flach 20 Philadelphia Union 58.075
5 ↑1 Wil Trapp 28 Minnesota United 56.475
6 ↑5 Ian Harkes 26 Dundee United 55.775
7 ↓3 Hassani Dotson 24 Minnesota United 55.625
8 Jackson Yueill 24 San Jose Earthquakes 54.95
9 ↓2 Chris Durkin 21 St. Truidense 54.7
10 Johnny Cardoso 20 Internacional 54.1
11 ↓2 Michael Bradley 34 Toronto FC 53.55
12 ↑2 Tanner Tessmann 20 Venezia 52.675
13 ↓1 Eryk Williamson 24 Portland Timbers 51.4
14 ↑1 Brandon Servania 22 FC Dallas 51.175
15 ↓2 Christian Cappis 22 Brondby IF 51.175
16 Owen Otasowie 20 Club Brugge 15.25

Center Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 ↑6 Weston McKennie 23 Juventus 65.25
2 ↓1 Gianluca Busio 19 Venezia 62.55
3 NR Luca de la Torre 23 Heracles 60.475
4 ↑1 Cristian Roldan 26 Seattle Sounders FC 60.35
5 ↓2 Alejandro Bedoya 34 Philadelphia Union 60.175
6 Keaton Parks 24 New York City FC 58.625
7 ↑1 Alfredo Morales 31 New York City FC 57.525
8 ↓4 Alan Sonora 23 Independiente 57.125
9 ↓7 Yunus Musah 18 Valencia 57
10 ↑1 Kellyn Acosta 26 Colorado Rapids 56
11 ↓2 Cole Bassett 20 Colorado Rapids 54.825
12 Marky Delgado 26 Toronto FC 53.45
13 ↓3 Sebastian Lletget 29 LA Galaxy 53.4
14 ↓1 Moses Nyeman 18 DC United 47.4
15 Bryang Kayo 19 Wolfsburg 20.25

*Luca de la Torre moved to CM, Fernando Juarez Arce removed.

Attacking Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 ↑1 Brenden Aaronson 22 RB Salzburg 65.825
2 ↓1 Giovanni Reyna 18 Borussia Dortmund 62.55
3 Christian Pulisic 23 Chelsea 60.55
4 ↑5 Tim Weah 21 Lille 59.625
5 ↑1 Konrad de la Fuente 20 Marseille 57.775
6 ↑1 Djordje Mihailovic 23 CF Montreal 57.225
7 ↑1 Brooks Lennon 24 Atlanta United 57.125
8 ↓3 Julian Green 26 Greuther Fuerth 56.15
9 ↑21 Tmothy Chandler 31 Eintracht Frankfurt 55.975
10 Emmanuel Sabbi 23 Odense 55.925
11 ↑3 Khiry Shelton 28 Sporting KC 55.875
12 ↑1 Sebastian Saucedo 24 Pumas 55.125
13 ↑14 Alex Mendez 21 Vizela 53.45
14 ↓1 Timothy Tillman 22 Greuther Fuerth 52.8
15 ↑3 Jonathan Lewis 24 Colorado Rapids 52.75
16 ↑1 Caden Clark 18 New York Red Bulls 52.725
17 ↑8 Duane Holmes 27 Huddersfield Town 52.575
18 ↓6 Paul Arriola 26 DC United 52.45
19 ↓3 Benji Michel 24 Orlando City 51.775
20 ↑1 Paxton Pomykal 21 FC Dallas 50.975
21 ↓1 Chris Mueller 25 Orlando City 50.875
22 ↓7 Andres Perea 20 Orlando City 50.775
23 ↑1 Frankie Amaya 21 New York Red Bulls 50.15
24 ↓1 Joel Sonora 25 Banfield 48.2
25 ↓3 Emerson Hyndman 25 Atlanta United 47.7
26 NR Thomas Roberts 20 SK Austria Klagenfurt 46.875
27 NR Jordan Morris 27 Seattle Sounders FC 45.125
28 Tyler Boyd 26 Rizespor 45.1
29 ↓10 Lynden Gooch 25 Sunderland 44.65
30 ↓1 Nebiyou Perry 22 Ostersunds 39.575
31 Richard Ledezma 21 PSV Eindhoven 18
32 ↑1 Jonathan Amon 22 FC Nordsjaelland 10.375

*Memo Rodriguez & Romain Gall removed, Luca de la Torre moved to CM

Forwards

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Jordan Siebatcheu Pefok 25 Young Boys 59.175
2 Jesus Ferreira 20 FC Dallas 58.35
3 ↑4 Daryl Dike 21 Orlando City 56.925
4 ↑1 Josh Sargent 21 Norwich 56.075
5 ↑4 Christian Ramirez 30 Aberdeen 54.5
6 ↓2 Gyasi Zardes 30 Columbus Crew 54.175
7 ↓4 Ricardo Pepi 18 FC Dallas 53.6
8 Matthew Hoppe 20 Mallorca 52.5
9 ↑2 Nicholas Gioacchini 21 Montpellier 52.025
10 ↑5 Jeremy Ebobisse 24 San Jose Earthquakes 51.775
11 ↓1 Rubio Rubin 25 Real Salt Lake 51.5
12 ↓6 Haji Wright 23 Antalyaspor 49.700
13 Cade Cowell 18 San Jose Earthquakes 49.125
14 ↑3 Jozy Altidore 32 Toronto FC 48.925
15 ↓1 Mason Toye 23 CF Montreal 47.925
16 ↓4 Robbie Robinson 23 Inter Miami 47.85
17 ↑1 Andrija Novakovich 25 Frosinone 44.475
18 ↓2 Bobby Wood 28 Real Salt Lake 44.325
19 ↑1 Sebastian Soto 21 Porto 18.25

*Charlie Kelman removed

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