USMNT Player Coefficient
The second round of FIFA (pay no mind to the slave labor) World Cup Qualifying is here! Soccer is still jammed packed from now until the summer of 2023. Following all the USMNT is hard and there are big games like every month or something, so I am here to help.
For those new to this series I decided to develop this because there are always a significant amount of blog posts/conversations focusing on the debate about who should be called in. So why not find a new way to bring about the conversation of who the top 23 (or how ever many are called up) players are in a win-now situation using a little math.
As always, this is just a jumping off point in the conversation, not an endorsement saying this is exactly who should be called up.
Reasoning
With players spread across the world, in many different quality of leagues, choosing which players are the best becomes a very difficult proposition. How do you rate a sure-fire starter in the MLS vs. a squad player the in the Bundesliga? Because of this I devised a coefficient that combines multiple statistical resources and rankings to create a mathematical rating of all eligible and under consideration USMNT players.
What is Considered (Methodology)
To create the coefficient I assigned point values of various weights and tiers based upon the following criteria:
- League Ranking (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Club Ranking SPI (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Percentage of League Minutes Played (Max 10 Points)
- Individual Player Ratings in League Games (Max 50 Points) (whoscored.com, fotmob.com)
- Percentage of USMNT Call-ups in past year of Rosters (Current Max of 1.25 Points)
- Continental Competition Appearances (Current Max of 4.5)
- Recent Minutes Bonus (Max 2 Points)
- Form Bonus (Max 1 Point)
These items were chosen based upon philosophy that experience on the highest levels show a better player then one at lower levels, but very little minutes or poor play at a top squad may not show the most in form player than one playing at a high level, but at a lower club. Players receive a bonus if their recent minutes/ratings have seen an uptick in form. Those bonuses equate to raising a player up a tier. In addition, a small weight was given on familiarity with recent call-ups as a factor.
What Isn't Measured
What has to be remembered is the point of this exercise is to identify the best 23 players currently. Things that cannot be measured are club situations, Cap-ties, current injuries, player development, formation fits, poor National Team appearances, etc.
Who Is Considered
I automatically included every player that received a call-up from the past year of rosters (currently November 2020-September 2021). Additionally I tried to include all players that are under consideration for a call-up or that consensus says should be considered for a call-up (players that play in leagues that do not have advanced stats are not included). Players are then sorted into generalized positions (based upon appearances at club level according to WhoScored positional data). There is always some movement of the top 23 based upon formation considerations in how many per position are called. Players not currently eligible for USMNT call-up are not listed. Any suggestions to players to add or remove from the pool are highly recommended.
Notes
There will be an upcoming rosters that will feature outside of normal FIFA windows and will have lots of domestic and youth depth pieces.
Goalkeepers
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | ↑9 | Zack Steffen | 26 | Manchester City | 60.3 |
2 | Matt Turner | 27 | NE Revolution | 59.525 | |
3 | ↓2 | Sean Johnson | 32 | New York City FC | 59.3 |
4 | ↓1 | Brad Guzan | 37 | Atlanta United | 55.65 |
5 | ↓1 | Tim Melia | 35 | Sporting KC | 54.65 |
6 | ↓1 | JT Marcinkowski | 24 | San Jose Earthquakes | 54.25 |
7 | Stefan Frei | 35 | Seattle Sounders FC | 53.25 | |
8 | ↓2 | Bill Hamid | 30 | DC United | 52.2 |
9 | ↓1 | Ethan Horvath | 26 | Nottingham Forrest | 45.05 |
10 | ↓1 | Matt Freese | 23 | Philadelphia Union | 45.05 |
11 | Chituru Odunze | 19 | Leicester City | 20.5 | |
12 | Carlos Dos Santos | 21 | Benfica | 18.25 | |
13 | Brady Scott | 22 | Austin FC | 9.25 |
Centerbacks
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | ↑1 | John Brooks | 28 | Wolfsburg | 66.075 |
2 | ↑3 | Cameron Carter-Vickers | 23 | Celtic | 64.025 |
3 | Tim Ream | 34 | Fulham | 62.8 | |
4 | ↑6 | Miles Robinson | 24 | Atlanta United | 60.075 |
5 | ↓1 | Matt Miazga | 26 | Alaves | 60.025 |
6 | ↓5 | Chris Richards | 21 | Hoffenheim | 59.825 |
7 | ↑1 | Walker Zimmerman | 28 | Nashville SC | 59.8 |
8 | ↓1 | Mark McKenzie | 22 | Genk | 57.3 |
9 | Auston Trusty | 23 | Colorado Rapids | 57.175 | |
10 | ↓4 | Henry Kessler | 23 | NE Revolution | 56.25 |
11 | ↑3 | Justen Glad | 24 | Real Salt Lake | 54.65 |
12 | ↑1 | Donovan Pines | 23 | DC United | 54.175 |
13 | ↑2 | Mauricio Pineda | 24 | Chicago Fire FC | 53.4 |
14 | ↑3 | Aaron Long | 29 | New York Red Bulls | 51.7 |
15 | ↓4 | Omar Gonzalez | 33 | Toronto FC | 51.375 |
16 | Tim Parker | 28 | Houston Dynamo | 51.15 | |
17 | ↑3 | Erik Palmer-Brown | 24 | Troyes | 50.700 |
18 | ↓6 | Justin Che | 17 | FC Dallas | 49.9 |
19 | Aboubacar Keita | 21 | Columbus Crew | 48.6 | |
20 | ↓2 | Brendan Hines-Ike | 26 | DC United | 48.525 |
Left Backs
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Antonee Robinson | 24 | Fulham | 63.875 | |
2 | DeJuan Jones | 24 | NE Revolution | 59.225 | |
3 | ↑1 | George Bello | 19 | Atlanta United | 57.675 |
4 | Chase Gasper | 25 | Minnesota United | 56.95 | |
5 | ↑5 | Sam Vines | 22 | Royal Antwerp | 55.625 |
6 | ↓3 | Daniel Lovitz | 30 | Nashville SC | 55.425 |
7 | ↓1 | Andrew Gutman | 25 | New York Red Bulls | 55.3 |
8 | ↓3 | Ryan Hollingshead | 30 | FC Dallas | 55.125 |
9 | ↓1 | Kevin Paredes | 18 | DC United | 51.825 |
10 | ↓1 | Marco Farfan | 22 | Los Angeles FC | 51.5 |
11 | Jaylin Lindsey | 21 | Sporting KC | 50.15 | |
12 | Chris Gloster | 21 | New York City FC | 48.275 |
Right Backs
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Sergino Dest | 21 | Barcelona | 68.2 | |
2 | Joe Scally | 18 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 65.2 | |
3 | Kyle Duncan | 24 | New York Red Bulls | 59.825 | |
4 | Brandon Bye | 26 | NE Revolution | 58.7 | |
5 | ↑2 | DeAndre Yedlin | 28 | Galatasaray | 58.3 |
6 | ↓1 | Keegan Rosenberry | 27 | Colorado Rapids | 56.5 |
7 | ↓1 | Aaron Herrera | 24 | Real Salt Lake | 55.875 |
8 | ↑1 | Bryan Reynolds | 20 | Roma | 52.35 |
9 | ↓1 | Nick Lima | 26 | Austin FC | 51.025 |
10 | Tristan Blackmon | 25 | Los Angeles FC | 50.725 | |
11 | ↑2 | Reggie Cannon | 23 | Boavista | 49.475 |
12 | Shaq Moore | 25 | Tenerife | 49.425 | |
13 | ↓2 | Tommy Thompson | 26 | San Jose Earthquakes | 47.625 |
14 | Matthew Olosunde | 23 | Preston North End | 14 |
Defensive Midfielders
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Tyler Adams | 22 | RB Leipzig | 62.55 | |
2 | James Sands | 21 | New York City FC | 59.225 | |
3 | Sean Davis | 28 | New York Red Bulls | 59.2 | |
4 | ↑1 | Leon Flach | 20 | Philadelphia Union | 58.075 |
5 | ↑1 | Wil Trapp | 28 | Minnesota United | 56.475 |
6 | ↑5 | Ian Harkes | 26 | Dundee United | 55.775 |
7 | ↓3 | Hassani Dotson | 24 | Minnesota United | 55.625 |
8 | Jackson Yueill | 24 | San Jose Earthquakes | 54.95 | |
9 | ↓2 | Chris Durkin | 21 | St. Truidense | 54.7 |
10 | Johnny Cardoso | 20 | Internacional | 54.1 | |
11 | ↓2 | Michael Bradley | 34 | Toronto FC | 53.55 |
12 | ↑2 | Tanner Tessmann | 20 | Venezia | 52.675 |
13 | ↓1 | Eryk Williamson | 24 | Portland Timbers | 51.4 |
14 | ↑1 | Brandon Servania | 22 | FC Dallas | 51.175 |
15 | ↓2 | Christian Cappis | 22 | Brondby IF | 51.175 |
16 | Owen Otasowie | 20 | Club Brugge | 15.25 |
Center Midfielders
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | ↑6 | Weston McKennie | 23 | Juventus | 65.25 |
2 | ↓1 | Gianluca Busio | 19 | Venezia | 62.55 |
3 | NR | Luca de la Torre | 23 | Heracles | 60.475 |
4 | ↑1 | Cristian Roldan | 26 | Seattle Sounders FC | 60.35 |
5 | ↓2 | Alejandro Bedoya | 34 | Philadelphia Union | 60.175 |
6 | Keaton Parks | 24 | New York City FC | 58.625 | |
7 | ↑1 | Alfredo Morales | 31 | New York City FC | 57.525 |
8 | ↓4 | Alan Sonora | 23 | Independiente | 57.125 |
9 | ↓7 | Yunus Musah | 18 | Valencia | 57 |
10 | ↑1 | Kellyn Acosta | 26 | Colorado Rapids | 56 |
11 | ↓2 | Cole Bassett | 20 | Colorado Rapids | 54.825 |
12 | Marky Delgado | 26 | Toronto FC | 53.45 | |
13 | ↓3 | Sebastian Lletget | 29 | LA Galaxy | 53.4 |
14 | ↓1 | Moses Nyeman | 18 | DC United | 47.4 |
15 | Bryang Kayo | 19 | Wolfsburg | 20.25 |
*Luca de la Torre moved to CM, Fernando Juarez Arce removed.
Attacking Midfielders
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | ↑1 | Brenden Aaronson | 22 | RB Salzburg | 65.825 |
2 | ↓1 | Giovanni Reyna | 18 | Borussia Dortmund | 62.55 |
3 | Christian Pulisic | 23 | Chelsea | 60.55 | |
4 | ↑5 | Tim Weah | 21 | Lille | 59.625 |
5 | ↑1 | Konrad de la Fuente | 20 | Marseille | 57.775 |
6 | ↑1 | Djordje Mihailovic | 23 | CF Montreal | 57.225 |
7 | ↑1 | Brooks Lennon | 24 | Atlanta United | 57.125 |
8 | ↓3 | Julian Green | 26 | Greuther Fuerth | 56.15 |
9 | ↑21 | Tmothy Chandler | 31 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 55.975 |
10 | Emmanuel Sabbi | 23 | Odense | 55.925 | |
11 | ↑3 | Khiry Shelton | 28 | Sporting KC | 55.875 |
12 | ↑1 | Sebastian Saucedo | 24 | Pumas | 55.125 |
13 | ↑14 | Alex Mendez | 21 | Vizela | 53.45 |
14 | ↓1 | Timothy Tillman | 22 | Greuther Fuerth | 52.8 |
15 | ↑3 | Jonathan Lewis | 24 | Colorado Rapids | 52.75 |
16 | ↑1 | Caden Clark | 18 | New York Red Bulls | 52.725 |
17 | ↑8 | Duane Holmes | 27 | Huddersfield Town | 52.575 |
18 | ↓6 | Paul Arriola | 26 | DC United | 52.45 |
19 | ↓3 | Benji Michel | 24 | Orlando City | 51.775 |
20 | ↑1 | Paxton Pomykal | 21 | FC Dallas | 50.975 |
21 | ↓1 | Chris Mueller | 25 | Orlando City | 50.875 |
22 | ↓7 | Andres Perea | 20 | Orlando City | 50.775 |
23 | ↑1 | Frankie Amaya | 21 | New York Red Bulls | 50.15 |
24 | ↓1 | Joel Sonora | 25 | Banfield | 48.2 |
25 | ↓3 | Emerson Hyndman | 25 | Atlanta United | 47.7 |
26 | NR | Thomas Roberts | 20 | SK Austria Klagenfurt | 46.875 |
27 | NR | Jordan Morris | 27 | Seattle Sounders FC | 45.125 |
28 | Tyler Boyd | 26 | Rizespor | 45.1 | |
29 | ↓10 | Lynden Gooch | 25 | Sunderland | 44.65 |
30 | ↓1 | Nebiyou Perry | 22 | Ostersunds | 39.575 |
31 | Richard Ledezma | 21 | PSV Eindhoven | 18 | |
32 | ↑1 | Jonathan Amon | 22 | FC Nordsjaelland | 10.375 |
*Memo Rodriguez & Romain Gall removed, Luca de la Torre moved to CM
Forwards
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Jordan Siebatcheu Pefok | 25 | Young Boys | 59.175 | |
2 | Jesus Ferreira | 20 | FC Dallas | 58.35 | |
3 | ↑4 | Daryl Dike | 21 | Orlando City | 56.925 |
4 | ↑1 | Josh Sargent | 21 | Norwich | 56.075 |
5 | ↑4 | Christian Ramirez | 30 | Aberdeen | 54.5 |
6 | ↓2 | Gyasi Zardes | 30 | Columbus Crew | 54.175 |
7 | ↓4 | Ricardo Pepi | 18 | FC Dallas | 53.6 |
8 | Matthew Hoppe | 20 | Mallorca | 52.5 | |
9 | ↑2 | Nicholas Gioacchini | 21 | Montpellier | 52.025 |
10 | ↑5 | Jeremy Ebobisse | 24 | San Jose Earthquakes | 51.775 |
11 | ↓1 | Rubio Rubin | 25 | Real Salt Lake | 51.5 |
12 | ↓6 | Haji Wright | 23 | Antalyaspor | 49.700 |
13 | Cade Cowell | 18 | San Jose Earthquakes | 49.125 | |
14 | ↑3 | Jozy Altidore | 32 | Toronto FC | 48.925 |
15 | ↓1 | Mason Toye | 23 | CF Montreal | 47.925 |
16 | ↓4 | Robbie Robinson | 23 | Inter Miami | 47.85 |
17 | ↑1 | Andrija Novakovich | 25 | Frosinone | 44.475 |
18 | ↓2 | Bobby Wood | 28 | Real Salt Lake | 44.325 |
19 | ↑1 | Sebastian Soto | 21 | Porto | 18.25 |
*Charlie Kelman removed
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