FanPost

USMNT Player Pool Coefficient (October WCQ Edition)

USMNT Player Coefficient

The second round of FIFA (pay no mind to the slave labor) World Cup Qualifying is here! Soccer is still jammed packed from now until the summer of 2023. Following all the USMNT is hard and there are big games like every month or something, so I am here to help.

For those new to this series I decided to develop this because there are always a significant amount of blog posts/conversations focusing on the debate about who should be called in. So why not find a new way to bring about the conversation of who the top 23 (or how ever many are called up) players are in a win-now situation using a little math.

As always, this is just a jumping off point in the conversation, not an endorsement saying this is exactly who should be called up.

Reasoning

With players spread across the world, in many different quality of leagues, choosing which players are the best becomes a very difficult proposition. How do you rate a sure-fire starter in the MLS vs. a squad player the in the Bundesliga? Because of this I devised a coefficient that combines multiple statistical resources and rankings to create a mathematical rating of all eligible and under consideration USMNT players.

What is Considered (Methodology)

To create the coefficient I assigned point values of various weights and tiers based upon the following criteria:

  1. League Ranking (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
  2. Club Ranking SPI (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
  3. Percentage of League Minutes Played (Max 10 Points)
  4. Individual Player Ratings in League Games (Max 50 Points) (whoscored.com, fotmob.com)
  5. Percentage of USMNT Call-ups in past year of Rosters (Current Max of 1.25 Points)
  6. Continental Competition Appearances (Current Max of 4.5)
  7. Recent Minutes Bonus (Max 2 Points)
  8. Form Bonus (Max 1 Point)

These items were chosen based upon philosophy that experience on the highest levels show a better player then one at lower levels, but very little minutes or poor play at a top squad may not show the most in form player than one playing at a high level, but at a lower club. Players receive a bonus if their recent minutes/ratings have seen an uptick in form. Those bonuses equate to raising a player up a tier. In addition, a small weight was given on familiarity with recent call-ups as a factor.

What Isn't Measured

What has to be remembered is the point of this exercise is to identify the best 23 players currently. Things that cannot be measured are club situations, Cap-ties, current injuries, player development, formation fits, poor National Team appearances, etc.

Who Is Considered

I automatically included every player that received a call-up from the past year of rosters (currently November 2020-September 2021). Additionally I tried to include all players that are under consideration for a call-up or that consensus says should be considered for a call-up (players that play in leagues that do not have advanced stats are not included). Players are then sorted into generalized positions (based upon appearances at club level according to WhoScored positional data). There is always some movement of the top 23 based upon formation considerations in how many per position are called. Players not currently eligible for USMNT call-up are not listed. Any suggestions to players to add or remove from the pool are highly recommended.

Notes

There are several nagging injuries to key players and also the dreaded "Red List" situation that will very much affect this roster. Hopefully USSF gives Berhalter a bigger budget this time to bring in around 30.

Goalkeepers

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Sean Johnson 32 New York City FC 58.45
2 ↑1 Matt Turner 27 NE Revolution 57.75
3 ↑1 Brad Guzan 37 Atlanta United 56.425
4 NR Tim Melia 35 Sporting KC 54.825
5 ↑2 JT Marcinkowski 24 San Jose Earthquakes 54.475
6 ↑7 Bill Hamid 30 DC United 53.45
7 ↓5 Stefan Frei 35 Seattle Sounders FC 53.325
8 Ethan Horvath 26 Nottingham Forrest 45.3
9 ↑2 Matt Freese 23 Philadelphia Union 41.375
10 ↓5 Zack Steffen 26 Manchester City 20.75
11 ↓2 Chituru Odunze 18 Leicester City 20.75
12 ↓2 Carlos Dos Santos 21 Benfica 18.25
13 ↓1 Brady Scott 22 Austin FC 9.25

*David Ochoa removed, Tim Melia added

Centerbacks

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 ↑1 Chris Richards 21 Hoffenheim 64.7
2 ↓1 John Brooks 28 Wolfsburg 63.85
3 ↑3 Tim Ream 33 Fulham 62.5
4 ↓1 Matt Miazga 26 Alaves 61.15
5 ↓1 Cameron Carter-Vickers 23 Celtic 59.95
6 ↑7 Henry Kessler 23 NE Revolution 58.275
7 ↑5 Mark McKenzie 22 Genk 58.25
8 ↓1 Walker Zimmerman 28 Nashville SC 58.2
9 ↑1 Auston Trusty 23 Colorado Rapids 57.175
10 ↓2 Miles Robinson 24 Atlanta United 55.8
11 Omar Gonzalez 32 Toronto FC 54.05
12 ↑9 Justin Che 17 FC Dallas 53.925
13 ↑7 Donovan Pines 23 DC United 53.825
14 ↑2 Justen Glad 24 Real Salt Lake 53.45
15 ↓1 Mauricio Pineda 23 Chicago Fire FC 53.075
16 ↓1 Tim Parker 28 Houston Dynamo 51.2
17 ↓11 Aaron Long 28 New York Red Bulls 50.5
18 ↓1 Brendan Hines-Ike 26 DC United 49.825
19 ↓1 Aboubacar Keita 21 Columbus Crew 46.875
20 ↓11 Erik Palmer-Brown 24 Troyes 17.250

*Ventura Alvarado removed

Left Backs

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Antonee Robinson 24 Fulham 64.1
2 ↑1 DeJuan Jones 24 NE Revolution 59.15
3 ↓1 Daniel Lovitz 30 Nashville SC 58.05
4 ↑5 Chase Gasper 25 Minnesota United 57.45
5 ↓1 Ryan Hollingshead 30 FC Dallas 56.275
6 ↑2 Andrew Gutman 24 New York Red Bulls 55.4
7 ↓2 George Bello 19 Atlanta United 55.075
8 ↑4 Kevin Paredes 18 DC United 55.075
9 ↑1 Marco Farfan 22 Los Angeles FC 52.85
10 ↓4 Sam Vines 22 Royal Antwerp 51.075
11 ↓4 Jaylin Lindsey 21 Sporting KC 50.15
12 ↓1 Chris Gloster 21 New York City FC 48.275

Right Backs

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Sergino Dest 20 Barcelona 67.7
2 NR Joe Scally 18 Borussia M.Gladbach 64.1
3 ↑2 Kyle Duncan 24 New York Red Bulls 58.825
4 ↓1 Brandon Bye 25 NE Revolution 56.8
5 ↑2 Keegan Rosenberry 27 Colorado Rapids 56.65
6 ↑7 Aaron Herrera 24 Real Salt Lake 54.05
7 ↑2 DeAndre Yedlin 28 Galatasaray 53.925
8 ↑4 Nick Lima 26 Austin FC 52.325
9 ↓3 Bryan Reynolds 20 Roma 52.1
10 Tristan Blackmon 24 Los Angeles FC 51.85
11 ↑3 Tommy Thompson 26 San Jose Earthquakes 47.3
12 ↓1 Shaq Moore 24 Tenerife 40.475
13 ↓11 Reggie Cannon 23 Boavista 16
14 ↓6 Matthew Olosunde 23 Preston North End 14

*Joe Scally added, Julian Araujo removed

Defensive Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Tyler Adams 22 RB Leipzig 60.675
2 ↑2 James Sands 21 New York City FC 59.125
3 ↑4 Sean Davis 28 New York Red Bulls 58.05
4 ↑4 Hassani Dotson 24 Minnesota United 57.875
5 ↓2 Leon Flach 20 Philadelphia Union 57.075
6 ↑4 Wil Trapp 28 Minnesota United 56.475
7 ↑6 Chris Durkin 21 St. Truidense 55.8
8 ↓2 Jackson Yueill 24 San Jose Earthquakes 55.3
9 ↓4 Michael Bradley 34 Toronto FC 54.55
10 ↑2 Johnny Cardoso 20 Internacional 53.45
11 ↑4 Ian Harkes 26 Dundee United 52.1
12 ↓10 Eryk Williamson 24 Portland Timbers 51.4
13 NR Christian Cappis 22 Brondby IF 50.275
14 ↓3 Tanner Tessmann 20 Venezia 49.7
15 ↓1 Brandon Servania 22 FC Dallas 49.125
16 ↓7 Owen Otasowie 20 Club Brugge 15.5

*Christian Cappis

Center Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 ↑2 Gianluca Busio 19 Venezia 61.725
2 ↑4 Yunus Musah 18 Valencia 59.025
3 ↑1 Alejandro Bedoya 34 Philadelphia Union 57.675
4 NR Alan Sonora 23 Independiente 57.375
5 ↓3 Cristian Roldan 26 Seattle Sounders FC 57.25
6 ↓1 Keaton Parks 24 New York City FC 57
7 ↓6 Weston McKennie 23 Juventus 56.45
8 ↑3 Alfredo Morales 31 New York City FC 55.375
9 ↓1 Cole Bassett 20 Colorado Rapids 54.925
10 Sebastian Lletget 29 LA Galaxy 54.5
11 ↓4 Kellyn Acosta 26 Colorado Rapids 54.475
12 ↓3 Marky Delgado 26 Toronto FC 53.95
13 NR Moses Nyeman 17 DC United 48.425
14 ↑1 Fernando Juarez Arce 24 Necaxa 42.425
15 ↑2 Bryang Kayo 19 Wolfsburg 20.25

*Jan George, Taylor Booth, Mix Diskerud & Dillon Powers removed, Alan Sonora & Moses Nyeman added

Attacking Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Giovanni Reyna 18 Borussia Dortmund 64.8
2 ↑1 Brenden Aaronson 21 RB Salzburg 62.725
3 ↓1 Christian Pulisic 23 Chelsea 62
4 Luca de la Torre 23 Heracles 61.175
5 ↑6 Julian Green 26 Greuther Fuerth 58.625
6 ↑29 Konrad de la Fuente 20 Marseille 58.6
7 ↑5 Djordje Mihailovic 22 CF Montreal 58.4
8 Brooks Lennon 24 Atlanta United 57.4
9 ↓3 Tim Weah 21 Lille 56.8
10 ↑9 Emmanuel Sabbi 23 Odense 56.175
11 ↑11 Sebastian Saucedo 24 Pumas 55.325
12 ↑15 Paul Arriola 26 DC United 54.975
13 ↑14 Timothy Tillman 22 Greuther Fuerth 54.625
14 ↓9 Khiry Shelton 28 Sporting KC 53.95
15 ↓8 Andres Perea 20 Orlando City 52.775
16 ↑10 Benji Michel 23 Orlando City 52
17 ↓8 Caden Clark 18 New York Red Bulls 51.75
18 ↑7 Jonathan Lewis 24 Colorado Rapids 51.6
19 ↑5 Lynden Gooch 25 Sunderland 51
20 ↓5 Chris Mueller 25 Orlando City 50.8
21 ↑7 Paxton Pomykal 21 FC Dallas 49.85
22 ↓9 Emerson Hyndman 25 Atlanta United 49.7
23 NR Joel Sonora 25 Banfield 49.475
24 ↓6 Frankie Amaya 21 New York Red Bulls 49.425
25 ↓8 Duane Holmes 26 Huddersfield Town 48.225
26 ↓12 Memo Rodriguez 25 Houston Dynamo 48.125
27 NR Alex Mendez 21 Vizela 46.1
28 ↓12 Tyler Boyd 26 Rizespor 45.575
29 ↑4 Nebiyou Perry 21 Ostersunds 41.575
30 ↓20 Tmothy Chandler 31 Eintracht Frankfurt 20
31 ↓11 Richard Ledezma 21 PSV Eindhoven 18.25
32 ↑2 Romain Gall 26 Malmo 11.375
33 ↓12 Jonathan Amon 22 FC Nordsjaelland 11.375

*Corey Baird, Jordan Morris, Efrain Alvarez & Ulysses Llanez removed, Joel Sonora & Alex Mendez added

Forwards

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Jordan Siebatcheu Pefok 25 Young Boys 61.775
2 ↑16 Jesus Ferreira 20 FC Dallas 58
3 NR Ricardo Pepi 18 FC Dallas 56.375
4 ↑5 Gyasi Zardes 30 Columbus Crew 54.65
5 ↓3 Josh Sargent 21 Norwich 54.625
6 ↑1 Haji Wright 23 Antalyaspor 53.350
7 ↓4 Daryl Dike 21 Orlando City 52.625
8 ↓4 Matthew Hoppe 20 Mallorca 52.25
9 NR Christian Ramirez 30 Aberdeen 51.95
10 ↓5 Rubio Rubin 25 Real Salt Lake 51.775
11 ↑5 Nicholas Gioacchini 21 Montpellier 51.075
12 NR Robbie Robinson 22 Inter Miami 50.85
13 ↓7 Cade Cowell 17 San Jose Earthquakes 49.3
14 ↓2 Mason Toye 22 CF Montreal 48.925
15 ↓7 Jeremy Ebobisse 24 San Jose Earthquakes 48.175
16 ↑3 Bobby Wood 28 Real Salt Lake 46.575
17 ↓2 Jozy Altidore 31 Toronto FC 45.225
18 ↓7 Andrija Novakovich 25 Frosinone 40.425
19 ↓9 Charlie Kelman 19 Gillingham 39.45
20 ↓1 Sebastian Soto 21 Porto 18.5

*Ayo Akinola & Joseph Efford removed, Christian Ramirez, Ricardo Pepi & Robbie Robinson added

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