USMNT Player Coefficient
The second round of FIFA (pay no mind to the slave labor) World Cup Qualifying is here! Soccer is still jammed packed from now until the summer of 2023. Following all the USMNT is hard and there are big games like every month or something, so I am here to help.
For those new to this series I decided to develop this because there are always a significant amount of blog posts/conversations focusing on the debate about who should be called in. So why not find a new way to bring about the conversation of who the top 23 (or how ever many are called up) players are in a win-now situation using a little math.
As always, this is just a jumping off point in the conversation, not an endorsement saying this is exactly who should be called up.
Reasoning
With players spread across the world, in many different quality of leagues, choosing which players are the best becomes a very difficult proposition. How do you rate a sure-fire starter in the MLS vs. a squad player the in the Bundesliga? Because of this I devised a coefficient that combines multiple statistical resources and rankings to create a mathematical rating of all eligible and under consideration USMNT players.
What is Considered (Methodology)
To create the coefficient I assigned point values of various weights and tiers based upon the following criteria:
- League Ranking (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Club Ranking SPI (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Percentage of League Minutes Played (Max 10 Points)
- Individual Player Ratings in League Games (Max 50 Points) (whoscored.com, fotmob.com)
- Percentage of USMNT Call-ups in past year of Rosters (Current Max of 1.25 Points)
- Continental Competition Appearances (Current Max of 4.5)
- Recent Minutes Bonus (Max 2 Points)
- Form Bonus (Max 1 Point)
These items were chosen based upon philosophy that experience on the highest levels show a better player then one at lower levels, but very little minutes or poor play at a top squad may not show the most in form player than one playing at a high level, but at a lower club. Players receive a bonus if their recent minutes/ratings have seen an uptick in form. Those bonuses equate to raising a player up a tier. In addition, a small weight was given on familiarity with recent call-ups as a factor.
What Isn't Measured
What has to be remembered is the point of this exercise is to identify the best 23 players currently. Things that cannot be measured are club situations, Cap-ties, current injuries, player development, formation fits, poor National Team appearances, etc.
Who Is Considered
I automatically included every player that received a call-up from the past year of rosters (currently November 2020-September 2021). Additionally I tried to include all players that are under consideration for a call-up or that consensus says should be considered for a call-up (players that play in leagues that do not have advanced stats are not included). Players are then sorted into generalized positions (based upon appearances at club level according to WhoScored positional data). There is always some movement of the top 23 based upon formation considerations in how many per position are called. Players not currently eligible for USMNT call-up are not listed. Any suggestions to players to add or remove from the pool are highly recommended.
Notes
There are several nagging injuries to key players and also the dreaded "Red List" situation that will very much affect this roster. Hopefully USSF gives Berhalter a bigger budget this time to bring in around 30.
Goalkeepers
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Sean Johnson | 32 | New York City FC | 58.45 | |
2 | ↑1 | Matt Turner | 27 | NE Revolution | 57.75 |
3 | ↑1 | Brad Guzan | 37 | Atlanta United | 56.425 |
4 | NR | Tim Melia | 35 | Sporting KC | 54.825 |
5 | ↑2 | JT Marcinkowski | 24 | San Jose Earthquakes | 54.475 |
6 | ↑7 | Bill Hamid | 30 | DC United | 53.45 |
7 | ↓5 | Stefan Frei | 35 | Seattle Sounders FC | 53.325 |
8 | Ethan Horvath | 26 | Nottingham Forrest | 45.3 | |
9 | ↑2 | Matt Freese | 23 | Philadelphia Union | 41.375 |
10 | ↓5 | Zack Steffen | 26 | Manchester City | 20.75 |
11 | ↓2 | Chituru Odunze | 18 | Leicester City | 20.75 |
12 | ↓2 | Carlos Dos Santos | 21 | Benfica | 18.25 |
13 | ↓1 | Brady Scott | 22 | Austin FC | 9.25 |
*David Ochoa removed, Tim Melia added
Centerbacks
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | ↑1 | Chris Richards | 21 | Hoffenheim | 64.7 |
2 | ↓1 | John Brooks | 28 | Wolfsburg | 63.85 |
3 | ↑3 | Tim Ream | 33 | Fulham | 62.5 |
4 | ↓1 | Matt Miazga | 26 | Alaves | 61.15 |
5 | ↓1 | Cameron Carter-Vickers | 23 | Celtic | 59.95 |
6 | ↑7 | Henry Kessler | 23 | NE Revolution | 58.275 |
7 | ↑5 | Mark McKenzie | 22 | Genk | 58.25 |
8 | ↓1 | Walker Zimmerman | 28 | Nashville SC | 58.2 |
9 | ↑1 | Auston Trusty | 23 | Colorado Rapids | 57.175 |
10 | ↓2 | Miles Robinson | 24 | Atlanta United | 55.8 |
11 | Omar Gonzalez | 32 | Toronto FC | 54.05 | |
12 | ↑9 | Justin Che | 17 | FC Dallas | 53.925 |
13 | ↑7 | Donovan Pines | 23 | DC United | 53.825 |
14 | ↑2 | Justen Glad | 24 | Real Salt Lake | 53.45 |
15 | ↓1 | Mauricio Pineda | 23 | Chicago Fire FC | 53.075 |
16 | ↓1 | Tim Parker | 28 | Houston Dynamo | 51.2 |
17 | ↓11 | Aaron Long | 28 | New York Red Bulls | 50.5 |
18 | ↓1 | Brendan Hines-Ike | 26 | DC United | 49.825 |
19 | ↓1 | Aboubacar Keita | 21 | Columbus Crew | 46.875 |
20 | ↓11 | Erik Palmer-Brown | 24 | Troyes | 17.250 |
*Ventura Alvarado removed
Left Backs
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Antonee Robinson | 24 | Fulham | 64.1 | |
2 | ↑1 | DeJuan Jones | 24 | NE Revolution | 59.15 |
3 | ↓1 | Daniel Lovitz | 30 | Nashville SC | 58.05 |
4 | ↑5 | Chase Gasper | 25 | Minnesota United | 57.45 |
5 | ↓1 | Ryan Hollingshead | 30 | FC Dallas | 56.275 |
6 | ↑2 | Andrew Gutman | 24 | New York Red Bulls | 55.4 |
7 | ↓2 | George Bello | 19 | Atlanta United | 55.075 |
8 | ↑4 | Kevin Paredes | 18 | DC United | 55.075 |
9 | ↑1 | Marco Farfan | 22 | Los Angeles FC | 52.85 |
10 | ↓4 | Sam Vines | 22 | Royal Antwerp | 51.075 |
11 | ↓4 | Jaylin Lindsey | 21 | Sporting KC | 50.15 |
12 | ↓1 | Chris Gloster | 21 | New York City FC | 48.275 |
Right Backs
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Sergino Dest | 20 | Barcelona | 67.7 | |
2 | NR | Joe Scally | 18 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 64.1 |
3 | ↑2 | Kyle Duncan | 24 | New York Red Bulls | 58.825 |
4 | ↓1 | Brandon Bye | 25 | NE Revolution | 56.8 |
5 | ↑2 | Keegan Rosenberry | 27 | Colorado Rapids | 56.65 |
6 | ↑7 | Aaron Herrera | 24 | Real Salt Lake | 54.05 |
7 | ↑2 | DeAndre Yedlin | 28 | Galatasaray | 53.925 |
8 | ↑4 | Nick Lima | 26 | Austin FC | 52.325 |
9 | ↓3 | Bryan Reynolds | 20 | Roma | 52.1 |
10 | Tristan Blackmon | 24 | Los Angeles FC | 51.85 | |
11 | ↑3 | Tommy Thompson | 26 | San Jose Earthquakes | 47.3 |
12 | ↓1 | Shaq Moore | 24 | Tenerife | 40.475 |
13 | ↓11 | Reggie Cannon | 23 | Boavista | 16 |
14 | ↓6 | Matthew Olosunde | 23 | Preston North End | 14 |
*Joe Scally added, Julian Araujo removed
Defensive Midfielders
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Tyler Adams | 22 | RB Leipzig | 60.675 | |
2 | ↑2 | James Sands | 21 | New York City FC | 59.125 |
3 | ↑4 | Sean Davis | 28 | New York Red Bulls | 58.05 |
4 | ↑4 | Hassani Dotson | 24 | Minnesota United | 57.875 |
5 | ↓2 | Leon Flach | 20 | Philadelphia Union | 57.075 |
6 | ↑4 | Wil Trapp | 28 | Minnesota United | 56.475 |
7 | ↑6 | Chris Durkin | 21 | St. Truidense | 55.8 |
8 | ↓2 | Jackson Yueill | 24 | San Jose Earthquakes | 55.3 |
9 | ↓4 | Michael Bradley | 34 | Toronto FC | 54.55 |
10 | ↑2 | Johnny Cardoso | 20 | Internacional | 53.45 |
11 | ↑4 | Ian Harkes | 26 | Dundee United | 52.1 |
12 | ↓10 | Eryk Williamson | 24 | Portland Timbers | 51.4 |
13 | NR | Christian Cappis | 22 | Brondby IF | 50.275 |
14 | ↓3 | Tanner Tessmann | 20 | Venezia | 49.7 |
15 | ↓1 | Brandon Servania | 22 | FC Dallas | 49.125 |
16 | ↓7 | Owen Otasowie | 20 | Club Brugge | 15.5 |
*Christian Cappis
Center Midfielders
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | ↑2 | Gianluca Busio | 19 | Venezia | 61.725 |
2 | ↑4 | Yunus Musah | 18 | Valencia | 59.025 |
3 | ↑1 | Alejandro Bedoya | 34 | Philadelphia Union | 57.675 |
4 | NR | Alan Sonora | 23 | Independiente | 57.375 |
5 | ↓3 | Cristian Roldan | 26 | Seattle Sounders FC | 57.25 |
6 | ↓1 | Keaton Parks | 24 | New York City FC | 57 |
7 | ↓6 | Weston McKennie | 23 | Juventus | 56.45 |
8 | ↑3 | Alfredo Morales | 31 | New York City FC | 55.375 |
9 | ↓1 | Cole Bassett | 20 | Colorado Rapids | 54.925 |
10 | Sebastian Lletget | 29 | LA Galaxy | 54.5 | |
11 | ↓4 | Kellyn Acosta | 26 | Colorado Rapids | 54.475 |
12 | ↓3 | Marky Delgado | 26 | Toronto FC | 53.95 |
13 | NR | Moses Nyeman | 17 | DC United | 48.425 |
14 | ↑1 | Fernando Juarez Arce | 24 | Necaxa | 42.425 |
15 | ↑2 | Bryang Kayo | 19 | Wolfsburg | 20.25 |
*Jan George, Taylor Booth, Mix Diskerud & Dillon Powers removed, Alan Sonora & Moses Nyeman added
Attacking Midfielders
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Giovanni Reyna | 18 | Borussia Dortmund | 64.8 | |
2 | ↑1 | Brenden Aaronson | 21 | RB Salzburg | 62.725 |
3 | ↓1 | Christian Pulisic | 23 | Chelsea | 62 |
4 | Luca de la Torre | 23 | Heracles | 61.175 | |
5 | ↑6 | Julian Green | 26 | Greuther Fuerth | 58.625 |
6 | ↑29 | Konrad de la Fuente | 20 | Marseille | 58.6 |
7 | ↑5 | Djordje Mihailovic | 22 | CF Montreal | 58.4 |
8 | Brooks Lennon | 24 | Atlanta United | 57.4 | |
9 | ↓3 | Tim Weah | 21 | Lille | 56.8 |
10 | ↑9 | Emmanuel Sabbi | 23 | Odense | 56.175 |
11 | ↑11 | Sebastian Saucedo | 24 | Pumas | 55.325 |
12 | ↑15 | Paul Arriola | 26 | DC United | 54.975 |
13 | ↑14 | Timothy Tillman | 22 | Greuther Fuerth | 54.625 |
14 | ↓9 | Khiry Shelton | 28 | Sporting KC | 53.95 |
15 | ↓8 | Andres Perea | 20 | Orlando City | 52.775 |
16 | ↑10 | Benji Michel | 23 | Orlando City | 52 |
17 | ↓8 | Caden Clark | 18 | New York Red Bulls | 51.75 |
18 | ↑7 | Jonathan Lewis | 24 | Colorado Rapids | 51.6 |
19 | ↑5 | Lynden Gooch | 25 | Sunderland | 51 |
20 | ↓5 | Chris Mueller | 25 | Orlando City | 50.8 |
21 | ↑7 | Paxton Pomykal | 21 | FC Dallas | 49.85 |
22 | ↓9 | Emerson Hyndman | 25 | Atlanta United | 49.7 |
23 | NR | Joel Sonora | 25 | Banfield | 49.475 |
24 | ↓6 | Frankie Amaya | 21 | New York Red Bulls | 49.425 |
25 | ↓8 | Duane Holmes | 26 | Huddersfield Town | 48.225 |
26 | ↓12 | Memo Rodriguez | 25 | Houston Dynamo | 48.125 |
27 | NR | Alex Mendez | 21 | Vizela | 46.1 |
28 | ↓12 | Tyler Boyd | 26 | Rizespor | 45.575 |
29 | ↑4 | Nebiyou Perry | 21 | Ostersunds | 41.575 |
30 | ↓20 | Tmothy Chandler | 31 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 20 |
31 | ↓11 | Richard Ledezma | 21 | PSV Eindhoven | 18.25 |
32 | ↑2 | Romain Gall | 26 | Malmo | 11.375 |
33 | ↓12 | Jonathan Amon | 22 | FC Nordsjaelland | 11.375 |
*Corey Baird, Jordan Morris, Efrain Alvarez & Ulysses Llanez removed, Joel Sonora & Alex Mendez added
Forwards
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Jordan Siebatcheu Pefok | 25 | Young Boys | 61.775 | |
2 | ↑16 | Jesus Ferreira | 20 | FC Dallas | 58 |
3 | NR | Ricardo Pepi | 18 | FC Dallas | 56.375 |
4 | ↑5 | Gyasi Zardes | 30 | Columbus Crew | 54.65 |
5 | ↓3 | Josh Sargent | 21 | Norwich | 54.625 |
6 | ↑1 | Haji Wright | 23 | Antalyaspor | 53.350 |
7 | ↓4 | Daryl Dike | 21 | Orlando City | 52.625 |
8 | ↓4 | Matthew Hoppe | 20 | Mallorca | 52.25 |
9 | NR | Christian Ramirez | 30 | Aberdeen | 51.95 |
10 | ↓5 | Rubio Rubin | 25 | Real Salt Lake | 51.775 |
11 | ↑5 | Nicholas Gioacchini | 21 | Montpellier | 51.075 |
12 | NR | Robbie Robinson | 22 | Inter Miami | 50.85 |
13 | ↓7 | Cade Cowell | 17 | San Jose Earthquakes | 49.3 |
14 | ↓2 | Mason Toye | 22 | CF Montreal | 48.925 |
15 | ↓7 | Jeremy Ebobisse | 24 | San Jose Earthquakes | 48.175 |
16 | ↑3 | Bobby Wood | 28 | Real Salt Lake | 46.575 |
17 | ↓2 | Jozy Altidore | 31 | Toronto FC | 45.225 |
18 | ↓7 | Andrija Novakovich | 25 | Frosinone | 40.425 |
19 | ↓9 | Charlie Kelman | 19 | Gillingham | 39.45 |
20 | ↓1 | Sebastian Soto | 21 | Porto | 18.5 |
*Ayo Akinola & Joseph Efford removed, Christian Ramirez, Ricardo Pepi & Robbie Robinson added
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