USMNT Player Coefficient

The next round of FIFA (let us do one every month to give us more money) World Cup Qualifying is here! Soccer is still jammed packed from now until the summer of 2023. Following all the USMNT is hard and there are big games like every month or something, so I am here to help.

For those new to this series I decided to develop this because there are always a significant amount of blog posts/conversations focusing on the debate about who should be called in. So why not find a new way to bring about the conversation of who the top 23 (or how ever many are called up) players are in a win-now situation using a little math.

As always, this is just a jumping off point in the conversation, not an endorsement saying this is exactly who should be called up.

Reasoning

With players spread across the world, in many different quality of leagues, choosing which players are the best becomes a very difficult proposition. How do you rate a sure-fire starter in the MLS vs. a squad player the in the Bundesliga? Because of this I devised a coefficient that combines multiple statistical resources and rankings to create a mathematical rating of all eligible and under consideration USMNT players.

What is Considered (Methodology)

To create the coefficient I assigned point values of various weights and tiers based upon the following criteria:

1. League Ranking (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
2. Club Ranking SPI (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
3. Percentage of League Minutes Played (Max 10 Points)
4. Individual Player Ratings in League Games (Max 50 Points) (whoscored.com, fotmob.com)
5. Percentage of USMNT Call-ups in past year of Rosters (Current Max of 2 Points)
6. Continental Competition Appearances (Current Max of 4.5)
7. Recent Minutes Bonus (Max 2 Points)
8. Form Bonus (Max 1 Point)

These items were chosen based upon philosophy that experience on the highest levels show a better player then one at lower levels, but very little minutes or poor play at a top squad may not show the most in form player than one playing at a high level, but at a lower club. Players receive a bonus if their recent minutes/ratings have seen an uptick in form. Those bonuses equate to raising a player up a tier. In addition, a small weight was given on familiarity with recent call-ups as a factor.

What Isn't Measured

What has to be remembered is the point of this exercise is to identify the best 23 players currently. Things that cannot be measured are club situations, Cap-ties, current injuries, player development, formation fits, poor National Team appearances, etc.

Who Is Considered

I automatically included every player that received a call-up from the past year of rosters (currently January 2021-January 2022). Additionally I tried to include all players that are under consideration for a call-up or that consensus says should be considered for a call-up (players that play in leagues that do not have advanced stats are not included). Players are then sorted into generalized positions (based upon appearances at club level according to WhoScored positional data). There is always some movement of the top 23 based upon formation considerations in how many per position are called. Players not currently eligible for USMNT call-up are not listed. Any suggestions to players to add or remove from the pool are highly recommended.

Notes

Players that moved (officially in January) numbers should probably not be taken too seriously as they have yet to get enough data with their new clubs for their coefficient score to normalize.

Goalkeepers

Centerbacks

*Kobi Henry added

Left Backs

*Jonathan Gomez added

Right Backs

*Timothy Chandler moved from AM

Defensive Midfielders

Center Midfielders

Attacking Midfielders

*Timothy Chandler moved to RB, Jonathan Amon removed, Thomas Roberts added

Forwards

*Sebastian Soto removed