FanPost

USMNT Player Coefficient (January Edition)


USMNT Player Coefficient

The next round of FIFA (let us do one every month to give us more money) World Cup Qualifying is here! Soccer is still jammed packed from now until the summer of 2023. Following all the USMNT is hard and there are big games like every month or something, so I am here to help.

For those new to this series I decided to develop this because there are always a significant amount of blog posts/conversations focusing on the debate about who should be called in. So why not find a new way to bring about the conversation of who the top 23 (or how ever many are called up) players are in a win-now situation using a little math.

As always, this is just a jumping off point in the conversation, not an endorsement saying this is exactly who should be called up.

Reasoning

With players spread across the world, in many different quality of leagues, choosing which players are the best becomes a very difficult proposition. How do you rate a sure-fire starter in the MLS vs. a squad player the in the Bundesliga? Because of this I devised a coefficient that combines multiple statistical resources and rankings to create a mathematical rating of all eligible and under consideration USMNT players.

What is Considered (Methodology)

To create the coefficient I assigned point values of various weights and tiers based upon the following criteria:

  1. League Ranking (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
  2. Club Ranking SPI (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
  3. Percentage of League Minutes Played (Max 10 Points)
  4. Individual Player Ratings in League Games (Max 50 Points) (whoscored.com, fotmob.com)
  5. Percentage of USMNT Call-ups in past year of Rosters (Current Max of 2 Points)
  6. Continental Competition Appearances (Current Max of 4.5)
  7. Recent Minutes Bonus (Max 2 Points)
  8. Form Bonus (Max 1 Point)

These items were chosen based upon philosophy that experience on the highest levels show a better player then one at lower levels, but very little minutes or poor play at a top squad may not show the most in form player than one playing at a high level, but at a lower club. Players receive a bonus if their recent minutes/ratings have seen an uptick in form. Those bonuses equate to raising a player up a tier. In addition, a small weight was given on familiarity with recent call-ups as a factor.

What Isn't Measured

What has to be remembered is the point of this exercise is to identify the best 23 players currently. Things that cannot be measured are club situations, Cap-ties, current injuries, player development, formation fits, poor National Team appearances, etc.

Who Is Considered

I automatically included every player that received a call-up from the past year of rosters (currently January 2021-January 2022). Additionally I tried to include all players that are under consideration for a call-up or that consensus says should be considered for a call-up (players that play in leagues that do not have advanced stats are not included). Players are then sorted into generalized positions (based upon appearances at club level according to WhoScored positional data). There is always some movement of the top 23 based upon formation considerations in how many per position are called. Players not currently eligible for USMNT call-up are not listed. Any suggestions to players to add or remove from the pool are highly recommended.

Notes

Players that moved (officially in January) numbers should probably not be taken too seriously as they have yet to get enough data with their new clubs for their coefficient score to normalize.

Goalkeepers

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Zack Steffen 26 Manchester City 60.8
2 Matt Turner 27 NE Revolution 60.025
3 Sean Johnson 32 New York City FC 59.55
4 Brad Guzan 37 Atlanta United 55.65
5 Tim Melia 35 Sporting KC 53.65
6 ↑1 Stefan Frei 35 Seattle Sounders FC 53.25
7 ↓1 JT Marcinkowski 24 San Jose Earthquakes 53
8 Bill Hamid 31 DC United 52.2
9 NR Gabriel Slonina 17 Chicago Fire FC 51.7
10 ↓1 Ethan Horvath 26 Nottingham Forrest 46.05
11 NR John Pulskamp 20 Sporting KC 45.225
12 ↓2 Matt Freese 23 Philadelphia Union 44.05
13 ↓2 Chituru Odunze 19 Leicester City 20.5
*Gabriel Slonina & John Pulskamp added, Brady Scott & CJ dos Santos removed

Centerbacks

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 John Brooks 28 Wolfsburg 63.5
2 Cameron Carter-Vickers 24 Celtic 63.375
3 Tim Ream 34 Fulham 63.325
4 ↑2 Chris Richards 21 Hoffenheim 61.825
5 ↓1 Miles Robinson 24 Atlanta United 60.325
6 ↑1 Walker Zimmerman 28 Nashville SC 60.05
7 ↑1 Mark McKenzie 22 Genk 59.75
8 ↓3 Matt Miazga 26 Alaves 58.7
9 Auston Trusty 23 Colorado Rapids 57.675
10 ↑7 Erik Palmer-Brown 24 Troyes 56.825
11 ↓1 Henry Kessler 23 NE Revolution 56.5
12 ↓1 Justen Glad 24 Real Salt Lake 54.65
13 ↓1 Donovan Pines 23 DC United 54.175
14 ↓1 Mauricio Pineda 24 Chicago Fire FC 53.15
15 ↓1 Aaron Long 29 New York Red Bulls 51.95
16 ↓1 Omar Gonzalez 33 Toronto FC 51.375
17 ↓1 Tim Parker 28 Houston Dynamo 51.15
18 ↑1 Aboubacar Keita 21 Columbus Crew 48.6
19 ↑1 Brendan Hines-Ike 27 DC United 48.525
20 NR Kobi Henry 17 Orange County SC 46.075
21 ↓3 Justin Che 18 Hoffenheim 20.5

*Kobi Henry added

Left Backs

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Antonee Robinson 24 Fulham 64.675
2 DeJuan Jones 24 NE Revolution 59.475
3 George Bello 20 Atlanta United 58.175
4 ↑1 Sam Vines 22 Royal Antwerp 57.7
5 ↓1 Chase Gasper 25 Minnesota United 55.7
6 Daniel Lovitz 30 Nashville SC 55.425
7 Andrew Gutman 25 New York Red Bulls 55.3
8 Ryan Hollingshead 30 FC Dallas 55.125
9 ↑1 Marco Farfan 23 Los Angeles FC 52.25
10 ↓1 Kevin Paredes 18 DC United 52.075
11 Jaylin Lindsey 21 Sporting KC 49.15
12 Chris Gloster 21 New York City FC 48.275
13 NR Jonathan Gomez 18 Real Sociedad 11.25

*Jonathan Gomez added

Right Backs

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 ↑1 Joe Scally 19 Borussia M.Gladbach 64.2
2 NR Tmothy Chandler 31 Eintracht Frankfurt 63.275
3 ↓2 Sergino Dest 21 Barcelona 62.75
4 Brandon Bye 26 NE Revolution 58.7
5 ↑1 Keegan Rosenberry 28 Colorado Rapids 56.5
6 ↑5 Reggie Cannon 23 Boavista 56.4
7 Aaron Herrera 24 Real Salt Lake 55.875
8 ↓3 DeAndre Yedlin 28 Galatasaray 55.675
9 ↓6 Kyle Duncan 24 Oostende 55.575
10 ↓2 Bryan Reynolds 20 Roma 52.6
11 ↓1 Tristan Blackmon 25 Los Angeles FC 51.725
12 ↓3 Nick Lima 27 Austin FC 51.025
13 ↑1 Matthew Olosunde 23 Preston North End 50.775
14 ↓1 Tommy Thompson 26 San Jose Earthquakes 46.625
15 ↓3 Shaq Moore 25 Tenerife 45.775

*Timothy Chandler moved from AM

Defensive Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Tyler Adams 22 RB Leipzig 64.375
2 James Sands 21 Rangers 59.775
3 Sean Davis 28 New York Red Bulls 59.2
4 Leon Flach 20 Philadelphia Union 57.075
5 Wil Trapp 29 Minnesota United 55.475
6 ↑1 Hassani Dotson 24 Minnesota United 54.625
7 ↑3 Johnny Cardoso 20 Internacional 54.35
8 Jackson Yueill 24 San Jose Earthquakes 54.2
9 ↑2 Michael Bradley 34 Toronto FC 53.55
10 ↓4 Ian Harkes 26 Dundee United 53.2
11 ↑4 Christian Cappis 22 Brondby IF 52.675
12 Tanner Tessmann 20 Venezia 52.125
13 ↓4 Chris Durkin 21 St. Truidense 52.025
14 ↓1 Eryk Williamson 24 Portland Timbers 51.4
15 ↓1 Brandon Servania 22 FC Dallas 51.175
16 Owen Otasowie 21 Club Brugge 15.25

Center Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Weston McKennie 23 Juventus 65.125
2 ↑1 Luca de la Torre 23 Heracles 61.3
3 ↑1 Cristian Roldan 26 Seattle Sounders FC 60.6
4 ↑1 Alejandro Bedoya 34 Philadelphia Union 59.175
5 ↓3 Gianluca Busio 19 Venezia 58.975
6 Keaton Parks 24 New York City FC 58.625
7 ↑2 Yunus Musah 19 Valencia 57.725
8 ↓1 Alfredo Morales 31 New York City FC 57.525
9 ↑1 Kellyn Acosta 26 Colorado Rapids 56
10 ↑1 Cole Bassett 20 Colorado Rapids 55.075
11 ↓3 Alan Sonora 23 Independiente 53.525
12 Marky Delgado 26 Toronto FC 53.45
13 Sebastian Lletget 29 LA Galaxy 53.15
14 Moses Nyeman 18 DC United 47.4
15 Bryang Kayo 19 Wolfsburg 19.25

Attacking Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Brenden Aaronson 22 RB Salzburg 65.525
2 ↑10 Sebastian Saucedo 25 Pumas 62.575
3 Christian Pulisic 23 Chelsea 62.175
4 ↓2 Giovanni Reyna 19 Borussia Dortmund 60.55
5 ↑9 Timothy Tillman 23 Greuther Fuerth 59.6
6 ↓1 Konrad de la Fuente 20 Marseille 58.675
7 ↓3 Tim Weah 21 Lille 58.125
8 ↓1 Brooks Lennon 24 Atlanta United 57.625
9 ↓3 Djordje Mihailovic 23 CF Montreal 57.225
10 Emmanuel Sabbi 24 Odense 55.875
11 ↑6 Duane Holmes 27 Huddersfield Town 55.2
12 ↑1 Alex Mendez 21 Vizela 55.05
13 ↓2 Khiry Shelton 28 Sporting KC 54.875
14 ↓6 Julian Green 26 Greuther Fuerth 53.625
15 ↑1 Caden Clark 18 New York Red Bulls 52.975
16 ↓1 Jonathan Lewis 24 Colorado Rapids 52.75
17 ↓1 Paul Arriola 26 DC United 52.7
18 ↑1 Benji Michel 24 Orlando City 51.775
19 ↑1 Paxton Pomykal 22 FC Dallas 50.975
20 ↑9 Lynden Gooch 26 Sunderland 50.825
21 ↑1 Andres Perea 21 Orlando City 50.525
22 ↑1 Frankie Amaya 21 New York Red Bulls 50.15
23 ↑8

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21 PSV Eindhoven 50
24 Joel Sonora 25 Banfield 48.45
25 Emerson Hyndman 25 Atlanta United 47.7
26 Thomas Roberts 20 SK Austria Klagenfurt 46.575
27 ↑1 Tyler Boyd 27 Rizespor 46.225
28 ↓1 Jordan Morris 27 Seattle Sounders FC 45.875
29 ↑1 Nebiyou Perry 22 Ostersunds 39.825
30 NR Taylor Booth 20 Bayern Munich 20.25
31 ↓10 Chris Mueller 25 Hibernian 11.25

*Timothy Chandler moved to RB, Jonathan Amon removed, Thomas Roberts added

Forwards

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Jordan Pefok 25 Young Boys 63.975
2 ↑5 Ricardo Pepi 19 FC Augsburg 59.35
3 ↓1 Jesus Ferreira 21 FC Dallas 58.85
4 Josh Sargent 21 Norwich 56.025
5 Christian Ramirez 30 Aberdeen 55.65
6 Gyasi Zardes 30 Columbus Crew 54.425
7 ↑1 Matthew Hoppe 20 Mallorca 51.95
8 ↑1 Nicholas Gioacchini 21 Montpellier 51.9
9 ↑2 Rubio Rubin 25 Real Salt Lake 51.5
10 Jeremy Ebobisse 24 San Jose Earthquakes 50.775
11 ↓8 Daryl Dike 21 West Brom 50.075
12 ↓2 Jozy Altidore 32 Toronto FC 49.175
13 Cade Cowell 18 San Jose Earthquakes 48.375
14 ↑1 Mason Toye 23 CF Montreal 47.925
15 ↑1 Robbie Robinson 23 Inter Miami 47.85
16 ↓4 Haji Wright 23 Antalyaspor 47.425
17 Andrija Novakovich 25 Frosinone 45.975
18 Bobby Wood 29 Real Salt Lake 44.325

*Sebastian Soto removed

This is a FanPost written by a member of our blog's community. The views expressed in this post do not necessarily reflect the feelings or beliefs of the blog itself or the staff.