FanPost

A Deep Dive Into The Last Window

I’m writing this as a mental exercise to look at the potential of a second straight non-qualifying disaster.

The current standings show:

The Official Table (<—link)

Canada 25

USA 21

Mexico 21

Panama 17

Costa Rica 16

Final Window Fixtures:

Matchday 1: Mexico v US; Costa Rica v Canada; Panama v Honduras

Matchday 2: US v Panama; Canada v Jamaica; Honduras v Mexico; El Salvador v Costa Rica

Matchday 3: Costa Rica v US; Panama v Canada; Mexico v El Salvador

Expected results:

Matchday 1: Mexico W, Costa Rica W, Panama W

Standings: Canada 25, Mexico 24, USA 21, Panama 20, Costa Rica 19

Matchday 2: US-Pan Draw, Canada W, Mexico W, Costa Rica W

Standings: Canada 28, Mexico 27, USA 22, Costa Rica 22, Panama 21

The only result that is not that likely is Costa Rica beating Canada in Matchday 1. I gave the Ticos the W, however, to allow the scenario to go forward. If Canada beats Costa Rica, we aren’t automatically in but a draw vs Mexico or Panama guarantees the Intercontinental Playoff with New Zealand. I may dive more into this later (after all I called this a Deep Dive).

Some would argue US draw vs Panama at home "ain’t gonna happen", however, I believe Panama knows they only need a point from that game to have a shot at 4th (or better) knowing they have a Win-and-In last game because one or both of the US and Costa Rica will drop points since they play each other. Perhaps another dive…

A Panama win vs a ‘done’ Canada and a draw between the US and Costa Rica, puts Panama in the 3rd spot. So, um, yeah a draw in Orlando does them just fine. Ggg certainly hasn’t shown any ability to break down bunkering teams with his tactics and player selections. So I believe Panama feels like they’re going to Disney World while in Orlando.

With the stage set above, the US goes to San Jose, where they’ve never won, knowing they need a result. A draw there plus a Panama win vs Canada, means we get New Zealand in the Intercontinental Playoff. If we lose and Panama wins, we’re out in 5th. We can lose as long as Panama doesn’t win, we get the playoff again.

Oh Canadaaaa!

So the only game 3 scenario where we don’t need help is a win in Costa Rica. Don’t forget, however, Costa Rica is also win and in or playoff, so they’re playing for a World Cup spot at home against the hated ‘Gringos’. That is going to be intense to the 10th power. It will likely be too much for our guys and Ggg to handle…

Some Other Early Scenarios:

So, OK, let’s look at Costa Rica in Matchday 1 against Canada.

With a draw in that game, a Mexico W and a Panama W, the standings would be:

Canada 26, Mexico 24, US 21, Panama 20, Costa Rica 17, fine.

The Matchday 2 games play out as above (Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica all win, US/Panama draw).

Standings: Canada 29, Mexico 27, US 22, Panama 21, Costa Rica 20.

That yields the same analysis as the original scenario. US still needs a draw at Costa Rica to guarantee at least the Intercontinental Playoff if Panama wins against Canada. Panama loss or draw gives us 3rd but remember they’re playing a Canada side that is already qualified. If experience tells you anything, you take the team with more at stake in these games. Panama is playing for survival, Canada is playing for theoretical seeding and bragging rights. Advantage Panama.

Any points for Costa Rica against Canada keeps this scenario in play…. Oh Canadaaaa!

Easy Street Scenario, Eh?

So let’s look at an easy street scenario. Canada beats Costa Rica. Mexico still whoops US and Panama wins too.

Standings: Canada 28, Mexico 24, US 21, Panama 20, Costa Rica 16.

Now with the expected Matchday 2 results, Canada, Mexico, Costa Rica all win and US/Pan draw.

Standings: Canada 31, Mexico 27, US 22, Panama 21, Costa Rica 19.

Canada and Mexico are guaranteed #1&2, respectively. US guaranteed the Intercontinental Playoff (save some screwy goal differential stuff). Panama and Costa Rica will be in play for the last spot and the Playoff depending on goal differential and results. Bottom line Costa Rica and Panama both will have their World Cup lives on the line. Canada will be #1 no matter what and will likely field an exploratory lineup. The US will only be playing to avoid the Intercontinental Playoff in Costa Rica against a team desperate for a win. Oh yeah, remember, we’ve never won there either.

Our ‘Win-and-In’?

OK. Let’s dig into what happens if we do our minimum, beat Panama game 2. All other results are the same in Matchdays 1 and 2 (1. CR W, Mex W, Pan W; 2. Can W, Mex W, US W, CR W).

Standings: Canada 28, Mexico 27, US 24, Costa Rica 22, Panama 20.

Obviously, again the US is guaranteed the Intercontinental Playoff. However, again, Costa Rica and Panama have 3rd, 4th, or 5th on the table and have everything to play for. As above, Costa Rica can beat us and qualify 3rd. A draw puts them at goal differential mercy if a desperate Panama beats an already-qualified Canada. So they’re going to be going for the yugular from the first whistle. We’re again only playing to avoid New Zealand, who we clearly don’t fear.

I caution that it would be a mistake to be overconfident and risk a World Cup spot on some possible fluke goal, phantom red card, injury, whatever…. Unfortunately, we’ll take the game too lightly, Ggg may mess up the tactics and we could lose to the All-Whites (name referring to their uniform not their players, I think….) on some set piece goal in the 86th minute.

Canada did their part, we have to perform in this scenario and I have zero confidence that the right players and the right tactics will be employed. We may ‘dominate’ and lose, again….

Just For Grins, Maybe We Get A Result in Mexico….

This seems to be most ‘couch pundits’ go to result. This couch pundit believes it is not remotely possible but I’ll entertain the scenario for sake of discussion.

So we get a draw against Mexico at Azteca. All other expected results for Matchday 1 & 2 remain the same (1. Costa Rica W, US/Mex draw, Panama W; 2. Canada W, Mexico W, US/Panama draw, Costa Rica W).

Standings: Canada 28, Mexico 25, US 23, Costa Rica 22, Panama 21

Canada gets #1. Mexico gets 2 or 3. The same merry-go-round between US, CR, and Panama exists. US could finish 5th with a loss (CR win) and Panama win. So this Mexico draw scenario really doesn’t help much at all. We still need help if we can’t get a result in Costa Rica. Oh Canadaaaa!

Good day, Eh?

In almost every reasonable scenario, it ends up being up to Canada to help us make the World Cup, since they play both of our challengers this window.

If they beat Costa Rica and/or Panama, we’re in at least a playoff (as long as we don’t lose to Panama…).

Here’s to Coach Herdman keeping his team’s pedal to the metal….

MMCM

Whew….

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