USMNT Player Coefficient (March Edition)

USMNT Player Coefficient

The final round of FIFA World Cup Qualifying is here! If you are reading this you are probably super stressed and worried so many starters being out injured. Following all the USMNT is hard and there are big games like every month or something, so I am here to help.

For those new to this series I decided to develop this because there are always a significant amount of blog posts/conversations focusing on the debate about who should be called in. So why not find a new way to bring about the conversation of who the top 23 (or how ever many are called up) players are in a win-now situation using a little math.

As always, this is just a jumping off point in the conversation, not an endorsement saying this is exactly who should be called up.

Reasoning

With players spread across the world, in many different quality of leagues, choosing which players are the best becomes a very difficult proposition. How do you rate a sure-fire starter in the MLS vs. a squad player the in the Bundesliga? Because of this I devised a coefficient that combines multiple statistical resources and rankings to create a mathematical rating of all eligible and under consideration USMNT players.

What is Considered (Methodology)

To create the coefficient I assigned point values of various weights and tiers based upon the following criteria:

League Ranking (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Club Ranking SPI (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
Percentage of League Minutes Played (Max 10 Points)
Individual Player Ratings in League Games (Max 50 Points) (whoscored.com, fotmob.com)
Percentage of USMNT Call-ups in past year of Rosters (Current Max of 2 Points)
Continental Competition Appearances (Current Max of 4.5)
Recent Minutes Bonus (Max 2 Points)
Form Bonus (Max 1 Point)

These items were chosen based upon philosophy that experience on the highest levels show a better player then one at lower levels, but very little minutes or poor play at a top squad may not show the most in form player than one playing at a high level, but at a lower club. Players receive a bonus if their recent minutes/ratings have seen an uptick in form. Those bonuses equate to raising a player up a tier. In addition, a small weight was given on familiarity with recent call-ups as a factor.

What Isn't Measured

What has to be remembered is the point of this exercise is to identify the best 23 players currently. Things that cannot be measured are club situations, Cap-ties, current injuries, player development, formation fits, poor National Team appearances, etc.

Who Is Considered

I automatically included every player that received a call-up from the past year of rosters (currently January 2021-January 2022). Additionally I tried to include all players that are under consideration for a call-up or that consensus says should be considered for a call-up (players that play in leagues that do not have advanced stats are not included). Players are then sorted into generalized positions (based upon appearances at club level according to WhoScored positional data). There is always some movement of the top 23 based upon formation considerations in how many per position are called. Players not currently eligible for USMNT call-up are not listed. Any suggestions to players to add or remove from the pool are highly recommended.

Notes

MLS has only had 4 games so far and that is a pretty small sample size, so take that small sample size into consideration. It typically takes 6-8 matches for a players score to normalize.

Goalkeepers

Rank	Change	Player	Age	Club	Score
1		Zack Steffen	26	Manchester City	60.8
2	↑1	Sean Johnson	32	New York City FC	59.15
3	↑6	Gabriel Slonina	17	Chicago Fire FC	57.425
4	↑4	Bill Hamid	31	DC United	57.35
5	↑5	Ethan Horvath	26	Nottingham Forrest	53.575
6	↓2	Brad Guzan	37	Atlanta United	53
7	↓1	Stefan Frei	35	Seattle Sounders FC	51.4
8	↓1	JT Marcinkowski	24	San Jose Earthquakes	50.125
9	↓4	Tim Melia	35	Sporting KC	48.4
10	↑1	John Pulskamp	20	Sporting KC	43.225
11	↓9	Matt Turner	27	NE Revolution	13.75

*Chituru Odunze and Matt Freese removed

Centerbacks

Rank	Change	Player	Age	Club	Score
1		John Brooks	29	Wolfsburg	65.325
2		Cameron Carter-Vickers	24	Celtic	63.1
3		Tim Ream	34	Fulham	61.7
4	↑2	Walker Zimmerman	28	Nashville SC	61.675
5	↓1	Chris Richards	21	Hoffenheim	60.7
6	↑9	Aaron Long	29	New York Red Bulls	58.675
7	↑3	Erik Palmer-Brown	24	Troyes	57.800
8	↑6	Mauricio Pineda	24	Chicago Fire FC	56.4
9		Auston Trusty	23	Colorado Rapids	56.125
10	↓2	Matt Miazga	26	Alaves	55.925
11	↑1	Justen Glad	25	Real Salt Lake	55.7
12	↓5	Mark McKenzie	23	Genk	55.45
13	↑6	Brendan Hines-Ike	27	DC United	54.9
14	↑2	Omar Gonzalez	33	NE Revolution	53.5
15	↑6	Justin Che	18	Hoffenheim	53.025
16	↓11	Miles Robinson	25	Atlanta United	50.35
17		Tim Parker	29	Houston Dynamo	49.425
18	↓7	Henry Kessler	23	NE Revolution	47.725
19	↑1	Kobi Henry	17	Orange County SC	46.025
20	↓7	Donovan Pines	24	DC United	45.1

*Aboubacar Keita removed

Left Backs

Rank	Change	Player	Age	Club	Score
1		Antonee Robinson	24	Fulham	63.55
2	↑6	Ryan Hollingshead	30	Los Angeles FC	58.175
3	↑3	Daniel Lovitz	30	Nashville SC	56.475
4	↓1	George Bello	20	Arminia Bielefeld	55.475
5	↑4	Marco Farfan	23	FC Dallas	55.3
6	↓4	DeJuan Jones	24	NE Revolution	54.9
7	↓3	Sam Vines	22	Royal Antwerp	54.875
8	↓1	Andrew Gutman	25	Atlanta United	54.225
9	↑2	Jaylin Lindsey	21	Charlotte FC	52.925
10	↑3	Jonathan Gomez	18	Real Sociedad B	51.225
11	↓1	Kevin Paredes	18	Wolfsburg	21.25
12	↓7	Chase Gasper	26	Minnesota United	12

*Chris Gloster removed

Right Backs

Rank	Change	Player	Age	Club	Score
1	↑2	Sergino Dest	21	Barcelona	65.7
2	↓1	Joe Scally	19	Borussia M.Gladbach	61.825
3	↓1	Tmothy Chandler	31	Eintracht Frankfurt	60.125
4	↑2	Reggie Cannon	23	Boavista	59.8
5	↓1	Brandon Bye	26	NE Revolution	57.75
6	↑6	Nick Lima	27	Austin FC	56.125
7	↓2	Keegan Rosenberry	28	Colorado Rapids	56.05
8	↑2	Bryan Reynolds	20	KV Kortrijk	52.85
9	↓1	DeAndre Yedlin	28	Inter Miami	52.4
10	↑5	Shaq Moore	25	Tenerife	50.525
11	↓2	Kyle Duncan	24	Oostende	49.375
12	↓5	Aaron Herrera	24	Real Salt Lake	43.85

*Tommy Thompson, Matthew Olosunde & Tristan Blackmon removed

Defensive Midfielders

Rank	Change	Player	Age	Club	Score
1		Tyler Adams	23	RB Leipzig	62.85
2	↑4	Hassani Dotson	24	Minnesota United	59.1
3	↑1	Leon Flach	21	Philadelphia Union	57.775
4	↓1	Sean Davis	29	Nashville SC	57.3
5	↑10	Brandon Servania	23	FC Dallas	56.775
6	NR	Edwin Cerrillo	21	FC Dallas	56.000
7	↑3	Ian Harkes	26	Dundee United	55.275
8	↓3	Wil Trapp	29	Minnesota United	55.25
9		Michael Bradley	34	Toronto FC	54.525
10	↓3	Johnny Cardoso	20	Internacional	54.35
11	↓9	James Sands	21	Rangers	53.875
12	↓4	Jackson Yueill	25	San Jose Earthquakes	52.25
13	↓2	Christian Cappis	22	Brondby IF	51.475
14	↓2	Tanner Tessmann	20	Venezia	51.175
15	↓2	Chris Durkin	22	St. Truidense	50.85
16	NR	Dante Polvara	21	Aberdeen	41.85
17	↓3	Eryk Williamson	24	Portland Timbers	11.25

*Owen Otasowie removed, Edwin Cerrillo & Dante Polvara added

Center Midfielders

Rank	Change	Player	Age	Club	Score
1		Weston McKennie	23	Juventus	63.25
2		Luca de la Torre	23	Heracles	60.6
3	↑4	Yunus Musah	19	Valencia	60.475
4		Alejandro Bedoya	34	Philadelphia Union	59.2
5	↑3	Alfredo Morales	31	New York City FC	58.8
6	↑6	Marky Delgado	26	LA Galaxy	58.3
7	↓4	Cristian Roldan	26	Seattle Sounders FC	58.25
8	↑1	Kellyn Acosta	26	Los Angeles FC	58.075
9	↓4	Gianluca Busio	19	Venezia	57.875
10	↑3	Sebastian Lletget	29	NE Revolution	55.9
11		Alan Sonora	23	Independiente	53.525
12	↓6	Keaton Parks	24	New York City FC	52.975
13	↓3	Cole Bassett	20	Feyenoord	50.45
14		Moses Nyeman	18	DC United	46.15

*Bryang Kayo

Attacking Midfielders

Rank	Change	Player	Age	Club	Score
1		Brenden Aaronson	22	RB Salzburg	65.904
2	↑1	Christian Pulisic	23	Chelsea	63.175
3	↑19	Frankie Amaya	21	New York Red Bulls	61.25
4	↑3	Tim Weah	22	Lille	60.275
5	↓1	Giovanni Reyna	19	Borussia Dortmund	59.75
6	↑11	Paul Arriola	27	FC Dallas	58.175
7	↓2	Timothy Tillman	23	Greuther Fuerth	57.625
8	↓6	Sebastian Saucedo	25	Pumas	56.525
9	↓3	Konrad de la Fuente	20	Marseille	56.25
10	↑9	Paxton Pomykal	22	FC Dallas	56
11	↓3	Brooks Lennon	24	Atlanta United	55.725
12	↓2	Emmanuel Sabbi	24	Odense	55.075
13	↓4	Djordje Mihailovic	23	CF Montreal	54.55
14	↑14	Jordan Morris	27	Seattle Sounders FC	53.55
15	↓1	Julian Green	26	Greuther Fuerth	53.25
16		Jonathan Lewis	24	Colorado Rapids	52.675
17	↓6	Duane Holmes	27	Huddersfield Town	52.625
18	↓6	Alex Mendez	21	Vizela	52.625
19	↑4	Richard Ledezma	21	PSV Eindhoven	50
20	↓2	Benji Michel	24	Orlando City	49.925
21	↑6	Tyler Boyd	27	Rizespor	49.7
22	↑2	Joel Sonora	25	Velez Sarsfield	49.45
23	↓10	Khiry Shelton	28	Sporting KC	49.075
24	↓9	Caden Clark	18	New York Red Bulls	47.925
25	↓5	Lynden Gooch	26	Sunderland	47.275
26	↓5	Andres Perea	21	Orlando City	46.225
27	↓1	Thomas Roberts	20	SK Austria Klagenfurt	45.58759
28	↑3	Chris Mueller	25	Hibernian	45.4
29	NR	Jose Gallegos	20	Sonderjyske	40.625
30		Taylor Booth	20	Bayern Munich	20.25
31	↓6	Emerson Hyndman	25	Atlanta United	11

*Jose Gallegos added, Nebiyou Perry removed

Forwards

Rank	Change	Player	Age	Club	Score
1		Jordan Pefok	25	Young Boys	65.925
2	↑1	Jesus Ferreira	21	FC Dallas	60.375
3	↑1	Josh Sargent	22	Norwich	58.225
4	↑14	Bobby Wood	29	Real Salt Lake	57.175
5	↓3	Ricardo Pepi	19	FC Augsburg	55.725
6	↓1	Christian Ramirez	30	Aberdeen	54.125
7	NR	Miguel Berry	24	Columbus Crew	53.95
8	↓1	Matthew Hoppe	21	Mallorca	51.7
9	↓1	Nicholas Gioacchini	21	Montpellier	51.5
10	↑2	Jozy Altidore	32	NE Revolution	50.9
11	↓1	Jeremy Ebobisse	25	San Jose Earthquakes	50.7
12	↓6	Gyasi Zardes	30	Columbus Crew	49.65
13	↑3	Haji Wright	23	Antalyaspor	49.375
14	↓3	Daryl Dike	21	West Brom	49
15	↑2	Andrija Novakovich	25	Frosinone	47.225
16	↓3	Cade Cowell	18	San Jose Earthquakes	44.3
17	NR	Sebastian Soto	21	Livingston	41.9
18	↓3	Robbie Robinson	23	Inter Miami	40.7
19	↓5	Mason Toye	23	CF Montreal	10
20	↓11	Rubio Rubin	26	Real Salt Lake	10

*Miguel Berry and Sebastian Soto removed

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