USMNT Player Coefficient
The final round of FIFA World Cup Qualifying is here! If you are reading this you are probably super stressed and worried so many starters being out injured. Following all the USMNT is hard and there are big games like every month or something, so I am here to help.
For those new to this series I decided to develop this because there are always a significant amount of blog posts/conversations focusing on the debate about who should be called in. So why not find a new way to bring about the conversation of who the top 23 (or how ever many are called up) players are in a win-now situation using a little math.
As always, this is just a jumping off point in the conversation, not an endorsement saying this is exactly who should be called up.
Reasoning
With players spread across the world, in many different quality of leagues, choosing which players are the best becomes a very difficult proposition. How do you rate a sure-fire starter in the MLS vs. a squad player the in the Bundesliga? Because of this I devised a coefficient that combines multiple statistical resources and rankings to create a mathematical rating of all eligible and under consideration USMNT players.
What is Considered (Methodology)
To create the coefficient I assigned point values of various weights and tiers based upon the following criteria:
- League Ranking (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Club Ranking SPI (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Percentage of League Minutes Played (Max 10 Points)
- Individual Player Ratings in League Games (Max 50 Points) (whoscored.com, fotmob.com)
- Percentage of USMNT Call-ups in past year of Rosters (Current Max of 2 Points)
- Continental Competition Appearances (Current Max of 4.5)
- Recent Minutes Bonus (Max 2 Points)
- Form Bonus (Max 1 Point)
These items were chosen based upon philosophy that experience on the highest levels show a better player then one at lower levels, but very little minutes or poor play at a top squad may not show the most in form player than one playing at a high level, but at a lower club. Players receive a bonus if their recent minutes/ratings have seen an uptick in form. Those bonuses equate to raising a player up a tier. In addition, a small weight was given on familiarity with recent call-ups as a factor.
What Isn't Measured
What has to be remembered is the point of this exercise is to identify the best 23 players currently. Things that cannot be measured are club situations, Cap-ties, current injuries, player development, formation fits, poor National Team appearances, etc.
Who Is Considered
I automatically included every player that received a call-up from the past year of rosters (currently January 2021-January 2022). Additionally I tried to include all players that are under consideration for a call-up or that consensus says should be considered for a call-up (players that play in leagues that do not have advanced stats are not included). Players are then sorted into generalized positions (based upon appearances at club level according to WhoScored positional data). There is always some movement of the top 23 based upon formation considerations in how many per position are called. Players not currently eligible for USMNT call-up are not listed. Any suggestions to players to add or remove from the pool are highly recommended.
Notes
MLS has only had 4 games so far and that is a pretty small sample size, so take that small sample size into consideration. It typically takes 6-8 matches for a players score to normalize.
Goalkeepers
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Zack Steffen | 26 | Manchester City | 60.8 | |
2 | ↑1 | Sean Johnson | 32 | New York City FC | 59.15 |
3 | ↑6 | Gabriel Slonina | 17 | Chicago Fire FC | 57.425 |
4 | ↑4 | Bill Hamid | 31 | DC United | 57.35 |
5 | ↑5 | Ethan Horvath | 26 | Nottingham Forrest | 53.575 |
6 | ↓2 | Brad Guzan | 37 | Atlanta United | 53 |
7 | ↓1 | Stefan Frei | 35 | Seattle Sounders FC | 51.4 |
8 | ↓1 | JT Marcinkowski | 24 | San Jose Earthquakes | 50.125 |
9 | ↓4 | Tim Melia | 35 | Sporting KC | 48.4 |
10 | ↑1 | John Pulskamp | 20 | Sporting KC | 43.225 |
11 | ↓9 | Matt Turner | 27 | NE Revolution | 13.75 |
*Chituru Odunze and Matt Freese removed
Centerbacks
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | John Brooks | 29 | Wolfsburg | 65.325 | |
2 | Cameron Carter-Vickers | 24 | Celtic | 63.1 | |
3 | Tim Ream | 34 | Fulham | 61.7 | |
4 | ↑2 | Walker Zimmerman | 28 | Nashville SC | 61.675 |
5 | ↓1 | Chris Richards | 21 | Hoffenheim | 60.7 |
6 | ↑9 | Aaron Long | 29 | New York Red Bulls | 58.675 |
7 | ↑3 | Erik Palmer-Brown | 24 | Troyes | 57.800 |
8 | ↑6 | Mauricio Pineda | 24 | Chicago Fire FC | 56.4 |
9 | Auston Trusty | 23 | Colorado Rapids | 56.125 | |
10 | ↓2 | Matt Miazga | 26 | Alaves | 55.925 |
11 | ↑1 | Justen Glad | 25 | Real Salt Lake | 55.7 |
12 | ↓5 | Mark McKenzie | 23 | Genk | 55.45 |
13 | ↑6 | Brendan Hines-Ike | 27 | DC United | 54.9 |
14 | ↑2 | Omar Gonzalez | 33 | NE Revolution | 53.5 |
15 | ↑6 | Justin Che | 18 | Hoffenheim | 53.025 |
16 | ↓11 | Miles Robinson | 25 | Atlanta United | 50.35 |
17 | Tim Parker | 29 | Houston Dynamo | 49.425 | |
18 | ↓7 | Henry Kessler | 23 | NE Revolution | 47.725 |
19 | ↑1 | Kobi Henry | 17 | Orange County SC | 46.025 |
20 | ↓7 | Donovan Pines | 24 | DC United | 45.1 |
*Aboubacar Keita removed
Left Backs
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Antonee Robinson | 24 | Fulham | 63.55 | |
2 | ↑6 | Ryan Hollingshead | 30 | Los Angeles FC | 58.175 |
3 | ↑3 | Daniel Lovitz | 30 | Nashville SC | 56.475 |
4 | ↓1 | George Bello | 20 | Arminia Bielefeld | 55.475 |
5 | ↑4 | Marco Farfan | 23 | FC Dallas | 55.3 |
6 | ↓4 | DeJuan Jones | 24 | NE Revolution | 54.9 |
7 | ↓3 | Sam Vines | 22 | Royal Antwerp | 54.875 |
8 | ↓1 | Andrew Gutman | 25 | Atlanta United | 54.225 |
9 | ↑2 | Jaylin Lindsey | 21 | Charlotte FC | 52.925 |
10 | ↑3 | Jonathan Gomez | 18 | Real Sociedad B | 51.225 |
11 | ↓1 | Kevin Paredes | 18 | Wolfsburg | 21.25 |
12 | ↓7 | Chase Gasper | 26 | Minnesota United | 12 |
*Chris Gloster removed
Right Backs
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | ↑2 | Sergino Dest | 21 | Barcelona | 65.7 |
2 | ↓1 | Joe Scally | 19 | Borussia M.Gladbach | 61.825 |
3 | ↓1 | Tmothy Chandler | 31 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 60.125 |
4 | ↑2 | Reggie Cannon | 23 | Boavista | 59.8 |
5 | ↓1 | Brandon Bye | 26 | NE Revolution | 57.75 |
6 | ↑6 | Nick Lima | 27 | Austin FC | 56.125 |
7 | ↓2 | Keegan Rosenberry | 28 | Colorado Rapids | 56.05 |
8 | ↑2 | Bryan Reynolds | 20 | KV Kortrijk | 52.85 |
9 | ↓1 | DeAndre Yedlin | 28 | Inter Miami | 52.4 |
10 | ↑5 | Shaq Moore | 25 | Tenerife | 50.525 |
11 | ↓2 | Kyle Duncan | 24 | Oostende | 49.375 |
12 | ↓5 | Aaron Herrera | 24 | Real Salt Lake | 43.85 |
*Tommy Thompson, Matthew Olosunde & Tristan Blackmon removed
Defensive Midfielders
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Tyler Adams | 23 | RB Leipzig | 62.85 | |
2 | ↑4 | Hassani Dotson | 24 | Minnesota United | 59.1 |
3 | ↑1 | Leon Flach | 21 | Philadelphia Union | 57.775 |
4 | ↓1 | Sean Davis | 29 | Nashville SC | 57.3 |
5 | ↑10 | Brandon Servania | 23 | FC Dallas | 56.775 |
6 | NR | Edwin Cerrillo | 21 | FC Dallas | 56.000 |
7 | ↑3 | Ian Harkes | 26 | Dundee United | 55.275 |
8 | ↓3 | Wil Trapp | 29 | Minnesota United | 55.25 |
9 | Michael Bradley | 34 | Toronto FC | 54.525 | |
10 | ↓3 | Johnny Cardoso | 20 | Internacional | 54.35 |
11 | ↓9 | James Sands | 21 | Rangers | 53.875 |
12 | ↓4 | Jackson Yueill | 25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 52.25 |
13 | ↓2 | Christian Cappis | 22 | Brondby IF | 51.475 |
14 | ↓2 | Tanner Tessmann | 20 | Venezia | 51.175 |
15 | ↓2 | Chris Durkin | 22 | St. Truidense | 50.85 |
16 | NR | Dante Polvara | 21 | Aberdeen | 41.85 |
17 | ↓3 | Eryk Williamson | 24 | Portland Timbers | 11.25 |
*Owen Otasowie removed, Edwin Cerrillo & Dante Polvara added
Center Midfielders
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Weston McKennie | 23 | Juventus | 63.25 | |
2 | Luca de la Torre | 23 | Heracles | 60.6 | |
3 | ↑4 | Yunus Musah | 19 | Valencia | 60.475 |
4 | Alejandro Bedoya | 34 | Philadelphia Union | 59.2 | |
5 | ↑3 | Alfredo Morales | 31 | New York City FC | 58.8 |
6 | ↑6 | Marky Delgado | 26 | LA Galaxy | 58.3 |
7 | ↓4 | Cristian Roldan | 26 | Seattle Sounders FC | 58.25 |
8 | ↑1 | Kellyn Acosta | 26 | Los Angeles FC | 58.075 |
9 | ↓4 | Gianluca Busio | 19 | Venezia | 57.875 |
10 | ↑3 | Sebastian Lletget | 29 | NE Revolution | 55.9 |
11 | Alan Sonora | 23 | Independiente | 53.525 | |
12 | ↓6 | Keaton Parks | 24 | New York City FC | 52.975 |
13 | ↓3 | Cole Bassett | 20 | Feyenoord | 50.45 |
14 | Moses Nyeman | 18 | DC United | 46.15 |
*Bryang Kayo
Attacking Midfielders
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Brenden Aaronson | 22 | RB Salzburg | 65.904 | |
2 | ↑1 | Christian Pulisic | 23 | Chelsea | 63.175 |
3 | ↑19 | Frankie Amaya | 21 | New York Red Bulls | 61.25 |
4 | ↑3 | Tim Weah | 22 | Lille | 60.275 |
5 | ↓1 | Giovanni Reyna | 19 | Borussia Dortmund | 59.75 |
6 | ↑11 | Paul Arriola | 27 | FC Dallas | 58.175 |
7 | ↓2 | Timothy Tillman | 23 | Greuther Fuerth | 57.625 |
8 | ↓6 | Sebastian Saucedo | 25 | Pumas | 56.525 |
9 | ↓3 | Konrad de la Fuente | 20 | Marseille | 56.25 |
10 | ↑9 | Paxton Pomykal | 22 | FC Dallas | 56 |
11 | ↓3 | Brooks Lennon | 24 | Atlanta United | 55.725 |
12 | ↓2 | Emmanuel Sabbi | 24 | Odense | 55.075 |
13 | ↓4 | Djordje Mihailovic | 23 | CF Montreal | 54.55 |
14 | ↑14 | Jordan Morris | 27 | Seattle Sounders FC | 53.55 |
15 | ↓1 | Julian Green | 26 | Greuther Fuerth | 53.25 |
16 | Jonathan Lewis | 24 | Colorado Rapids | 52.675 | |
17 | ↓6 | Duane Holmes | 27 | Huddersfield Town | 52.625 |
18 | ↓6 | Alex Mendez | 21 | Vizela | 52.625 |
19 | ↑4 | Richard Ledezma | 21 | PSV Eindhoven | 50 |
20 | ↓2 | Benji Michel | 24 | Orlando City | 49.925 |
21 | ↑6 | Tyler Boyd | 27 | Rizespor | 49.7 |
22 | ↑2 | Joel Sonora | 25 | Velez Sarsfield | 49.45 |
23 | ↓10 | Khiry Shelton | 28 | Sporting KC | 49.075 |
24 | ↓9 | Caden Clark | 18 | New York Red Bulls | 47.925 |
25 | ↓5 | Lynden Gooch | 26 | Sunderland | 47.275 |
26 | ↓5 | Andres Perea | 21 | Orlando City | 46.225 |
27 | ↓1 | Thomas Roberts | 20 | SK Austria Klagenfurt | 45.58759 |
28 | ↑3 | Chris Mueller | 25 | Hibernian | 45.4 |
29 | NR | Jose Gallegos | 20 | Sonderjyske | 40.625 |
30 | Taylor Booth | 20 | Bayern Munich | 20.25 | |
31 | ↓6 | Emerson Hyndman | 25 | Atlanta United | 11 |
*Jose Gallegos added, Nebiyou Perry removed
Forwards
Rank | Change | Player | Age | Club | Score |
1 | Jordan Pefok | 25 | Young Boys | 65.925 | |
2 | ↑1 | Jesus Ferreira | 21 | FC Dallas | 60.375 |
3 | ↑1 | Josh Sargent | 22 | Norwich | 58.225 |
4 | ↑14 | Bobby Wood | 29 | Real Salt Lake | 57.175 |
5 | ↓3 | Ricardo Pepi | 19 | FC Augsburg | 55.725 |
6 | ↓1 | Christian Ramirez | 30 | Aberdeen | 54.125 |
7 | NR | Miguel Berry | 24 | Columbus Crew | 53.95 |
8 | ↓1 | Matthew Hoppe | 21 | Mallorca | 51.7 |
9 | ↓1 | Nicholas Gioacchini | 21 | Montpellier | 51.5 |
10 | ↑2 | Jozy Altidore | 32 | NE Revolution | 50.9 |
11 | ↓1 | Jeremy Ebobisse | 25 | San Jose Earthquakes | 50.7 |
12 | ↓6 | Gyasi Zardes | 30 | Columbus Crew | 49.65 |
13 | ↑3 | Haji Wright | 23 | Antalyaspor | 49.375 |
14 | ↓3 | Daryl Dike | 21 | West Brom | 49 |
15 | ↑2 | Andrija Novakovich | 25 | Frosinone | 47.225 |
16 | ↓3 | Cade Cowell | 18 | San Jose Earthquakes | 44.3 |
17 | NR | Sebastian Soto | 21 | Livingston | 41.9 |
18 | ↓3 | Robbie Robinson | 23 | Inter Miami | 40.7 |
19 | ↓5 | Mason Toye | 23 | CF Montreal | 10 |
20 | ↓11 | Rubio Rubin | 26 | Real Salt Lake | 10 |
*Miguel Berry and Sebastian Soto removed
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