FanPost

USMNT Player Coefficient (March Edition)

USMNT Player Coefficient

The final round of FIFA World Cup Qualifying is here! If you are reading this you are probably super stressed and worried so many starters being out injured. Following all the USMNT is hard and there are big games like every month or something, so I am here to help.

For those new to this series I decided to develop this because there are always a significant amount of blog posts/conversations focusing on the debate about who should be called in. So why not find a new way to bring about the conversation of who the top 23 (or how ever many are called up) players are in a win-now situation using a little math.

As always, this is just a jumping off point in the conversation, not an endorsement saying this is exactly who should be called up.

Reasoning

With players spread across the world, in many different quality of leagues, choosing which players are the best becomes a very difficult proposition. How do you rate a sure-fire starter in the MLS vs. a squad player the in the Bundesliga? Because of this I devised a coefficient that combines multiple statistical resources and rankings to create a mathematical rating of all eligible and under consideration USMNT players.

What is Considered (Methodology)

To create the coefficient I assigned point values of various weights and tiers based upon the following criteria:

  1. League Ranking (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
  2. Club Ranking SPI (Max 10 Points) (fivethirtyeight.com)
  3. Percentage of League Minutes Played (Max 10 Points)
  4. Individual Player Ratings in League Games (Max 50 Points) (whoscored.com, fotmob.com)
  5. Percentage of USMNT Call-ups in past year of Rosters (Current Max of 2 Points)
  6. Continental Competition Appearances (Current Max of 4.5)
  7. Recent Minutes Bonus (Max 2 Points)
  8. Form Bonus (Max 1 Point)

These items were chosen based upon philosophy that experience on the highest levels show a better player then one at lower levels, but very little minutes or poor play at a top squad may not show the most in form player than one playing at a high level, but at a lower club. Players receive a bonus if their recent minutes/ratings have seen an uptick in form. Those bonuses equate to raising a player up a tier. In addition, a small weight was given on familiarity with recent call-ups as a factor.

What Isn't Measured

What has to be remembered is the point of this exercise is to identify the best 23 players currently. Things that cannot be measured are club situations, Cap-ties, current injuries, player development, formation fits, poor National Team appearances, etc.

Who Is Considered

I automatically included every player that received a call-up from the past year of rosters (currently January 2021-January 2022). Additionally I tried to include all players that are under consideration for a call-up or that consensus says should be considered for a call-up (players that play in leagues that do not have advanced stats are not included). Players are then sorted into generalized positions (based upon appearances at club level according to WhoScored positional data). There is always some movement of the top 23 based upon formation considerations in how many per position are called. Players not currently eligible for USMNT call-up are not listed. Any suggestions to players to add or remove from the pool are highly recommended.

Notes

MLS has only had 4 games so far and that is a pretty small sample size, so take that small sample size into consideration. It typically takes 6-8 matches for a players score to normalize.

Goalkeepers

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Zack Steffen 26 Manchester City 60.8
2 ↑1 Sean Johnson 32 New York City FC 59.15
3 ↑6 Gabriel Slonina 17 Chicago Fire FC 57.425
4 ↑4 Bill Hamid 31 DC United 57.35
5 ↑5 Ethan Horvath 26 Nottingham Forrest 53.575
6 ↓2 Brad Guzan 37 Atlanta United 53
7 ↓1 Stefan Frei 35 Seattle Sounders FC 51.4
8 ↓1 JT Marcinkowski 24 San Jose Earthquakes 50.125
9 ↓4 Tim Melia 35 Sporting KC 48.4
10 ↑1 John Pulskamp 20 Sporting KC 43.225
11 ↓9 Matt Turner 27 NE Revolution 13.75

*Chituru Odunze and Matt Freese removed

Centerbacks

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 John Brooks 29 Wolfsburg 65.325
2 Cameron Carter-Vickers 24 Celtic 63.1
3 Tim Ream 34 Fulham 61.7
4 ↑2 Walker Zimmerman 28 Nashville SC 61.675
5 ↓1 Chris Richards 21 Hoffenheim 60.7
6 ↑9 Aaron Long 29 New York Red Bulls 58.675
7 ↑3 Erik Palmer-Brown 24 Troyes 57.800
8 ↑6 Mauricio Pineda 24 Chicago Fire FC 56.4
9 Auston Trusty 23 Colorado Rapids 56.125
10 ↓2 Matt Miazga 26 Alaves 55.925
11 ↑1 Justen Glad 25 Real Salt Lake 55.7
12 ↓5 Mark McKenzie 23 Genk 55.45
13 ↑6 Brendan Hines-Ike 27 DC United 54.9
14 ↑2 Omar Gonzalez 33 NE Revolution 53.5
15 ↑6 Justin Che 18 Hoffenheim 53.025
16 ↓11 Miles Robinson 25 Atlanta United 50.35
17 Tim Parker 29 Houston Dynamo 49.425
18 ↓7 Henry Kessler 23 NE Revolution 47.725
19 ↑1 Kobi Henry 17 Orange County SC 46.025
20 ↓7 Donovan Pines 24 DC United 45.1

*Aboubacar Keita removed

Left Backs

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Antonee Robinson 24 Fulham 63.55
2 ↑6 Ryan Hollingshead 30 Los Angeles FC 58.175
3 ↑3 Daniel Lovitz 30 Nashville SC 56.475
4 ↓1 George Bello 20 Arminia Bielefeld 55.475
5 ↑4 Marco Farfan 23 FC Dallas 55.3
6 ↓4 DeJuan Jones 24 NE Revolution 54.9
7 ↓3 Sam Vines 22 Royal Antwerp 54.875
8 ↓1 Andrew Gutman 25 Atlanta United 54.225
9 ↑2 Jaylin Lindsey 21 Charlotte FC 52.925
10 ↑3 Jonathan Gomez 18 Real Sociedad B 51.225
11 ↓1 Kevin Paredes 18 Wolfsburg 21.25
12 ↓7 Chase Gasper 26 Minnesota United 12

*Chris Gloster removed

Right Backs

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 ↑2 Sergino Dest 21 Barcelona 65.7
2 ↓1 Joe Scally 19 Borussia M.Gladbach 61.825
3 ↓1 Tmothy Chandler 31 Eintracht Frankfurt 60.125
4 ↑2 Reggie Cannon 23 Boavista 59.8
5 ↓1 Brandon Bye 26 NE Revolution 57.75
6 ↑6 Nick Lima 27 Austin FC 56.125
7 ↓2 Keegan Rosenberry 28 Colorado Rapids 56.05
8 ↑2 Bryan Reynolds 20 KV Kortrijk 52.85
9 ↓1 DeAndre Yedlin 28 Inter Miami 52.4
10 ↑5 Shaq Moore 25 Tenerife 50.525
11 ↓2 Kyle Duncan 24 Oostende 49.375
12 ↓5 Aaron Herrera 24 Real Salt Lake 43.85

*Tommy Thompson, Matthew Olosunde & Tristan Blackmon removed

Defensive Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Tyler Adams 23 RB Leipzig 62.85
2 ↑4 Hassani Dotson 24 Minnesota United 59.1
3 ↑1 Leon Flach 21 Philadelphia Union 57.775
4 ↓1 Sean Davis 29 Nashville SC 57.3
5 ↑10 Brandon Servania 23 FC Dallas 56.775
6 NR Edwin Cerrillo 21 FC Dallas 56.000
7 ↑3 Ian Harkes 26 Dundee United 55.275
8 ↓3 Wil Trapp 29 Minnesota United 55.25
9 Michael Bradley 34 Toronto FC 54.525
10 ↓3 Johnny Cardoso 20 Internacional 54.35
11 ↓9 James Sands 21 Rangers 53.875
12 ↓4 Jackson Yueill 25 San Jose Earthquakes 52.25
13 ↓2 Christian Cappis 22 Brondby IF 51.475
14 ↓2 Tanner Tessmann 20 Venezia 51.175
15 ↓2 Chris Durkin 22 St. Truidense 50.85
16 NR Dante Polvara 21 Aberdeen 41.85
17 ↓3 Eryk Williamson 24 Portland Timbers 11.25

*Owen Otasowie removed, Edwin Cerrillo & Dante Polvara added

Center Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Weston McKennie 23 Juventus 63.25
2 Luca de la Torre 23 Heracles 60.6
3 ↑4 Yunus Musah 19 Valencia 60.475
4 Alejandro Bedoya 34 Philadelphia Union 59.2
5 ↑3 Alfredo Morales 31 New York City FC 58.8
6 ↑6 Marky Delgado 26 LA Galaxy 58.3
7 ↓4 Cristian Roldan 26 Seattle Sounders FC 58.25
8 ↑1 Kellyn Acosta 26 Los Angeles FC 58.075
9 ↓4 Gianluca Busio 19 Venezia 57.875
10 ↑3 Sebastian Lletget 29 NE Revolution 55.9
11 Alan Sonora 23 Independiente 53.525
12 ↓6 Keaton Parks 24 New York City FC 52.975
13 ↓3 Cole Bassett 20 Feyenoord 50.45
14 Moses Nyeman 18 DC United 46.15

*Bryang Kayo

Attacking Midfielders

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Brenden Aaronson 22 RB Salzburg 65.904
2 ↑1 Christian Pulisic 23 Chelsea 63.175
3 ↑19 Frankie Amaya 21 New York Red Bulls 61.25
4 ↑3 Tim Weah 22 Lille 60.275
5 ↓1 Giovanni Reyna 19 Borussia Dortmund 59.75
6 ↑11 Paul Arriola 27 FC Dallas 58.175
7 ↓2 Timothy Tillman 23 Greuther Fuerth 57.625
8 ↓6 Sebastian Saucedo 25 Pumas 56.525
9 ↓3 Konrad de la Fuente 20 Marseille 56.25
10 ↑9 Paxton Pomykal 22 FC Dallas 56
11 ↓3 Brooks Lennon 24 Atlanta United 55.725
12 ↓2 Emmanuel Sabbi 24 Odense 55.075
13 ↓4 Djordje Mihailovic 23 CF Montreal 54.55
14 ↑14 Jordan Morris 27 Seattle Sounders FC 53.55
15 ↓1 Julian Green 26 Greuther Fuerth 53.25
16 Jonathan Lewis 24 Colorado Rapids 52.675
17 ↓6 Duane Holmes 27 Huddersfield Town 52.625
18 ↓6 Alex Mendez 21 Vizela 52.625
19 ↑4 Richard Ledezma 21 PSV Eindhoven 50
20 ↓2 Benji Michel 24 Orlando City 49.925
21 ↑6 Tyler Boyd 27 Rizespor 49.7
22 ↑2 Joel Sonora 25 Velez Sarsfield 49.45
23 ↓10 Khiry Shelton 28 Sporting KC 49.075
24 ↓9 Caden Clark 18 New York Red Bulls 47.925
25 ↓5 Lynden Gooch 26 Sunderland 47.275
26 ↓5 Andres Perea 21 Orlando City 46.225
27 ↓1 Thomas Roberts 20 SK Austria Klagenfurt 45.58759
28 ↑3 Chris Mueller 25 Hibernian 45.4
29 NR Jose Gallegos 20 Sonderjyske 40.625
30 Taylor Booth 20 Bayern Munich 20.25
31 ↓6 Emerson Hyndman 25 Atlanta United 11

*Jose Gallegos added, Nebiyou Perry removed

Forwards

Rank Change Player Age Club Score
1 Jordan Pefok 25 Young Boys 65.925
2 ↑1 Jesus Ferreira 21 FC Dallas 60.375
3 ↑1 Josh Sargent 22 Norwich 58.225
4 ↑14 Bobby Wood 29 Real Salt Lake 57.175
5 ↓3 Ricardo Pepi 19 FC Augsburg 55.725
6 ↓1 Christian Ramirez 30 Aberdeen 54.125
7 NR Miguel Berry 24 Columbus Crew 53.95
8 ↓1 Matthew Hoppe 21 Mallorca 51.7
9 ↓1 Nicholas Gioacchini 21 Montpellier 51.5
10 ↑2 Jozy Altidore 32 NE Revolution 50.9
11 ↓1 Jeremy Ebobisse 25 San Jose Earthquakes 50.7
12 ↓6 Gyasi Zardes 30 Columbus Crew 49.65
13 ↑3 Haji Wright 23 Antalyaspor 49.375
14 ↓3 Daryl Dike 21 West Brom 49
15 ↑2 Andrija Novakovich 25 Frosinone 47.225
16 ↓3 Cade Cowell 18 San Jose Earthquakes 44.3
17 NR Sebastian Soto 21 Livingston 41.9
18 ↓3 Robbie Robinson 23 Inter Miami 40.7
19 ↓5 Mason Toye 23 CF Montreal 10
20 ↓11 Rubio Rubin 26 Real Salt Lake 10

*Miguel Berry and Sebastian Soto removed


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